Disclaimer: This is highly speculative, and is never a form of solicitation or advice. Please be responsible of your own trade.
Considering:
(1) {
+ 200MA as the longer overall trend, and 100MA as the shorter trend. A convergence between these two could indicate a possible trend reversal (not always immediate)
+ Previous records of convergence have proven to be a trend reversal (at 1h chart).
+ Triple bottom has formed
}
(2) {
- Many long-term investors are withdrawing their coins into a cold storage wallet out of fear, reducing volume in exchanges.
- Some short-term traders are exchanging their coins into fiat or alt-coin(s). Therefore decreasing price.
+ Once both parties have finished applying their strategy, support level can be more firmly established.
+ When support level seems firm, many buyers will see this moment as an opportunity to long.
}
(3) {
- Some exchanges have halted their operation before, and during August 1.
+ After operation resumes, trading volume will likely increase.
(4) {
- Bitcoin Cash (BCC) chain split in August 1, will cause users to have duplicate coins (BTC & BCC).
+ There will probably be a massive BCC dump by then by the majority supporter (BTC), reducing its price significantly.
+ Once minority support and price for BCC is low enough to be considered less relevant, investors will start to reinvest in BTC.
}
(5) {
+ Late August Segwit is expected to activate. This will be seen as very positive, and will likely cause price to uptrend like in the case of Litecoin.
- Until October, where in November a 2 MB hard-fork is planned to happen (or not). There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, whether or not NYA signers will follow through the agreement.
- We'll know more by then.
}
From these, it is possible:
1) Price at the moment will keep testing $2400 support or if not $2200, until it is seen as firm enough. It will then go up to the previous local maxima around $2700-2900. It is less likely that the price will go beyond $3000 before August due to the lack of volume and positive sentiment.
2) Along with BCC release, there will probably be a short bearish trend followed by sideways at around $2400-2600 for one week.
3) 8 August we will see an increase in trading volume as investor/trader's confidence goes up and exchanges have started to clarify the situation at that time.
4) By then who knows how much price will rally until October. Probably create a new ATH beyond $3000.
That is my guess. No one can know for certain what will happen. I might have missed some variable/elements of influence. Please feel free to add or argue, this idea is wholly open to discussion. Thank you.
Considering:
(1) {
+ 200MA as the longer overall trend, and 100MA as the shorter trend. A convergence between these two could indicate a possible trend reversal (not always immediate)
+ Previous records of convergence have proven to be a trend reversal (at 1h chart).
+ Triple bottom has formed
}
(2) {
- Many long-term investors are withdrawing their coins into a cold storage wallet out of fear, reducing volume in exchanges.
- Some short-term traders are exchanging their coins into fiat or alt-coin(s). Therefore decreasing price.
+ Once both parties have finished applying their strategy, support level can be more firmly established.
+ When support level seems firm, many buyers will see this moment as an opportunity to long.
}
(3) {
- Some exchanges have halted their operation before, and during August 1.
+ After operation resumes, trading volume will likely increase.
(4) {
- Bitcoin Cash (BCC) chain split in August 1, will cause users to have duplicate coins (BTC & BCC).
+ There will probably be a massive BCC dump by then by the majority supporter (BTC), reducing its price significantly.
+ Once minority support and price for BCC is low enough to be considered less relevant, investors will start to reinvest in BTC.
}
(5) {
+ Late August Segwit is expected to activate. This will be seen as very positive, and will likely cause price to uptrend like in the case of Litecoin.
- Until October, where in November a 2 MB hard-fork is planned to happen (or not). There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, whether or not NYA signers will follow through the agreement.
- We'll know more by then.
}
From these, it is possible:
1) Price at the moment will keep testing $2400 support or if not $2200, until it is seen as firm enough. It will then go up to the previous local maxima around $2700-2900. It is less likely that the price will go beyond $3000 before August due to the lack of volume and positive sentiment.
2) Along with BCC release, there will probably be a short bearish trend followed by sideways at around $2400-2600 for one week.
3) 8 August we will see an increase in trading volume as investor/trader's confidence goes up and exchanges have started to clarify the situation at that time.
4) By then who knows how much price will rally until October. Probably create a new ATH beyond $3000.
That is my guess. No one can know for certain what will happen. I might have missed some variable/elements of influence. Please feel free to add or argue, this idea is wholly open to discussion. Thank you.
Comment:
Convergence is about to meet, trend will be going downwards.
Comment:
Price is bouncing 2700-2900 at the moment. Keep an eye during this weekend, as price could suddenly decrease.
Comment:
Litecoin is at around its all-time low this July. Suspectedly $35-40 I think can provide a good support level for it to go up. A good reason behind why it might go up soon, is because of Bitcoin's upcoming technical/confirmation problem for sending/receiving during early August. As well as the lack of clarity for some investor/traders at the moment. These reasons could potentially spur a sudden increase in Litecoin's demand early August due to its usefulness and value for making transactions. It's fast, popular, has been stable for quite a while, and reasonably affordable. Knowing its rather solid support level, many investors will see this as an opportunity to go long.
+ Bitcoin adoption in Asia is increasing in popularity, and consequently in volume. (www.cryptocoinsnews....th-korea-regulation/)
- There is probably going to be a large bearish period during this weekend, as some investor/traders are switching to fiat and alt-coins out of worry and pre-caution.
- BTC-e exchange is down for an uncertain amount of time. This will not inspire confidence for some users.