Where are we headed 2 - If we repeat the past - % moves & Time
In this view point, I look at what we have done in the resent past & the % gains vs the time frames for these moves to come to fruition, also i consider BTC is always being accumulated Marco with micro distribution phases.
The basis of this analysis is what if the July 2019 peak to March 2020 capitulation to October 2020 kick off bull run repeats itself
During this period of time
The accumulation event took 469 days from the ATH to the start of the bull run
BTC had a 72% correction from ATH
The 2021 bull run
Started in October 2020 and peaked in April 2021 ( 188 days)
and made a 600% move to the upside from the average price (of the 2019 to 2020 accumulation phase)
if we apply that to current phase .... and if we repeat the past
The current accumulation phase will end in July 2022 (469 days from April 2021)
The mark up or bull run phase will peak in Jan 2023 (188 days from July 2021)
If we repeat the same % gains from the average accumulation price it will bring the next peak at 280K
however we must consider diminishing returns ....
what if we only achieve 500% .. that brings the next peak to 240k
what if the move is only 300% .... that brings us too 160k ..
so based on this viewpoint i put the next cycle peak between 160K to 280K .... my money would be somewhere in the middle
The basis of this analysis is what if the July 2019 peak to March 2020 capitulation to October 2020 kick off bull run repeats itself
During this period of time
The accumulation event took 469 days from the ATH to the start of the bull run
BTC had a 72% correction from ATH
The 2021 bull run
Started in October 2020 and peaked in April 2021 ( 188 days)
and made a 600% move to the upside from the average price (of the 2019 to 2020 accumulation phase)
if we apply that to current phase .... and if we repeat the past
The current accumulation phase will end in July 2022 (469 days from April 2021)
The mark up or bull run phase will peak in Jan 2023 (188 days from July 2021)
If we repeat the same % gains from the average accumulation price it will bring the next peak at 280K
however we must consider diminishing returns ....
what if we only achieve 500% .. that brings the next peak to 240k
what if the move is only 300% .... that brings us too 160k ..
so based on this viewpoint i put the next cycle peak between 160K to 280K .... my money would be somewhere in the middle