Bitcoin - Is It Different This Time?

goldbug1 Premium Updated   
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Can't believe it has been two months since my last article "show me the beef" and I will have to admit, the market is attempting to prove me wrong. However lets take a look at where we have gone since my last article, and whether we are hitting Euphoric on the sentiment meter.

Now I asked for the market to show me the beef, and slap me silly it has, but over the past two months Bitcoin really hasn't gone anywhere. Regardless I do like the consolidation and in the near term probabilities do favor a swing higher.

Starting with the weekly we have a tight broad consolidation at a high and this favors a continuation move higher, but there may be too much bullish sentiment surrounding the crytp space as a whole, which is bordering on euphoria.

While coins like Ethereum and Doge are making new highs, showing bullish impulse moves, Bitcoin is still consolidating, so that is a surely a yellow flag, but it does not imply we can't move higher and I am liking the mid to upper 70's right now for a trade, but still a little early.

Actually took a trade back in mid-April that hit T1, but was then stopped out. However we have been focused on where the action is and the action is in alt coins. Though I think most are crap projects, I do not mind trading them, and that is what we have been doing. We also have our original trade from March that is still ongoing with 2 out of 3 targets hit, so as I mentioned in my last article, just because I took some risk off the table, doesn't mean I won't be trading this market.

There is sooo much liquidity in the market via gov't stimulus, that demand is exceeding supply causing inflationary bubbles and overall I think this is all going to end badly for all markets eventually, but when does this happen? I have no clue, I am just going to enjoy the ride while it lasts, and ensure every trade has a stop.

So a very broad weekly consolidation has me leaning to the bull side, actually since early April, but what about the interim?

What I want to see here is a break of 62k, though 60k triggers a long IMO, I really want to see it take out 62k to confirm. So I will be looking for a setup in that area for a long to 68-72k. Challenge with being patient and waiting is you may miss the move. Benefit of being patient, 60k may hold as resistance and you lose money.

Now I am open to a more aggressive trade but need to see how we close nearer the EOD .

What would negate this setup is a close below 56k, should not trade below this level if bullish momentum is building up for a breakout.

Where I would consider a long for a position trade (not swing but position) would be out of 48-50k with a stop. Playing the range game here and 50k is showing pretty solid support so far and 60k is showing up as solid résistance.

I would normally start to discount a swing into the mid to low 30's at this point, but there is so much euphoria, especially in the alt space, that I am not going to discount it either. Surely a lower probability and will likely be short lived, so one of those "step in front of the train moves".

ALT Market

Current trade we are in, came close to T3 but failed to tap us out. Now I am not pushing Doge, I think it is a crap coin, but I will trade anything is the setup is right and for Doge it was. Now can Doge become a serious cash token? Maybe, but I highly doubt it and this is simply a market in Euphoria.

Are you kidding me? ETC trading at $125 and the list goes on, but for how long? Not to get me wrong, there are some seriously good projects out there, but this is turning out to be a market that is hitting euphoria on all 8.

From ADA to XRP and everything in between, is going vertical it is a sign that the market is nearer the end than the beginning of the next bull run. More hype is coming from all the FURUS on YouTube pumping crap coins and getting a stupid number of viewers. When that happens is anyone's guess, but mark my words it will happen.

So my advice is tread carefully in the alt market, know what you are buying, don't just buy because someone told you to, someone is bragging on how much they make. Not that they can't move higher, but respect stops, as when the music stops there is going to be a rush for the exit.


As far as Bitcoin goes, with all the liquidity flowing into the market and the talk about inflation now coming into the mix, in the long term Bitcoin and Gold should fare well. However that does not imply we will not get a pullback, we will, there will be better buying opportunities, not here, not now unless you are doing a DCA strategy.
Comment: I am amazed at how perfectly clear I can be and still I get comments like "you are wrong its already pulling back". Let me recap for the trolidots out there

1) 60k triggers a long but I want to see consolidation there first and a break of 62k targets the low 70's.
2) If we get a close below 56k negates the setup.
3) Position trades out of the 40's on a reversal.
4) Pushes into the 30's have to step in front of the train.

I mean how much more clear could I be and I still get at least one troll, I actually gave you exactly what I was looking for. No hope for some SMH


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