botje11

Bitcoin, is this an euforic overshoot?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
My previous analyses my title was, Bitcoin             , the sky is the limit (at 8700). Whats happening now is just insane, no logic here anymore. Most people just dont know what the meaning of market cap is, they just think it's a number. In only 2 months the total market cap trippled from about 100/150 billion to almost 400 now. like it's pocket change :).

This extreme overshoot is purely greed from amateur hour, smart money can see this and are waiting with seling their profits for better prices.

This is what i said in an update in my previous analyses:

My guess is, that this euforia will show something like this, i do espect a sharp fall from somewhere between 10300/10500 to scare to ones out who got in at these high prices. And a big chance we will see a spike upwards from there again, to do same all over again

I was in the low side with 10.500, but that was based on a prediction of a pattern i posted earlier. So this was an overshoot, the bullish flag target from the 5500 bottom few weeks ago to 8000, is making an overshoot now.

I personally don't believe in these crypto's like most people do. I don't believe in easy money, that's the biggest lesson i have learned in my 20 years experience. And lately all you see is easy money, even at this stage and with this market cap. I have to be honoust, i have not really read my self in to all these crypto's, but still, it's commen sense for me. Ofcourse i believe the technology will bring us to a new era, but the benifits won't be for the little guys, at least not like this, or even 10 or 100 times more like some people believe.

In the Netherlands, we have this guy who has been seen online a few times, who sold his house, cars, absolutley everything and is now living in a very small rental with his family. He bought the Bitcoin             with literally every Euro             he had at about $3000. Yesterday was the first time i heard him talk on the radio, am i sure within a few weeks he will be seen on TV also. For me this is the beginning of the end. I dont mean the Bitcoin             will drop to 1000 or less, but these prices wont be sustainable. I think the CME futures will be the turn around for the easy money. I believe this is all a campain just to get everyone horny for the bitcoin             , so everyone will be trading futures . And than it's just strategy in getting people into to the market at high prices. This market is not in real balance, while shorting possibilities are not available as buying. I will believe this will bring the market more in balance.

i have no idea how long and where this will bring us untill then, 12k, 15k             , 20k or maybe even much higher, but i dont think it will stay there very long. Untill than i am not going against this bullish greedy trend (with exception of short trades), i am just trading on what the charts are telling me.

Good luck all
Comment:

Sorry guys, i wanted to post this one earlier, but this f....nk tradingview website was updating or something. This would have been a perfect short moment. I did not expect this to happen this fast, i already got out at 10.100, a good 800 points. I see everything is getting sold now. I think people are getting realistic again. It's really dificult to set the bottom here, is it 9000, 8000, 7000, 6000? Or did they already scare the little people out now. One thing is almost certain for me, like i mentioned earlier, they will push it higher again, so people will start buying again from 10.500 and up, so they can do this all over again. Until there is no money left
Comment: This action is just awesome :) TA at its best. When i stare at the orders at Bitfinex, i only see small buy and sell orders. So i have the feeling that only the little guy is trying to buy the bottom and some are scared and selling. So it's 90% sure that this wil go even deeper. Until there will be bought with big volume and numbers, i dont think the bottem is set. I have made a few nice trades, it's some scary shit ofcourse but with this volatility it's at it best. Just keep the amount smaller than normal because the moves are much bigger now. I do half of what i normally do with these short trades now. This website is still f...ed up, so i could not post anything. I will do my best to update, but it is difficult because i am busy too now with these fast moves.

If we get above 9800 agian, than i expect it to go to the red area below. There i will short it again, but than a normal amount but 2 seperate moments
Comment:
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Getting close now, finger on the trigger
Comment: first ones in at 10290
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Love it when a plan comes together :) I only got the first part in, it could turn ant try again, but i dont have a problem if it would tumble right now :)). I have my stop at 10500. if it drops below 10.000, i wil lower it to my entry level
Comment: I have added at 10110
Comment: I have lowered my stop to 10230 for a free trade, its stil weak, but less weak than i thought, so i am not taking any chances now

Comment: I am out at 9825, thats 400 points again :)
Comment: But i am getting in again around 9920/9950 with a single position,
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I am in at 9945, have a short stop at that black line around 10100
Comment:

To stay negative, it has to stay beneath that descending line. I will probably close if it gets above it with 50 points or so. Best scenario it it continues to stay below the previous low. But that chance is very low to repeat that a few times again
Comment: Really? :))

Comment: I am out at 9530
Comment: I think the negative fun is over now. Was a bit lucky there getting out, i immediately updated here, so i hope i was on time :). I think it is going to consolidate now, probably go back to around 9900/10100 i think
Comment: I am long at 9570
Comment:

Above 9800 the short term downtrend is over. First step is 9680/9700
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Like is said, 9800 :) it should stay above 9650 now
Comment:

Big chance a double bottom is set at 9500/9400. The fact that the second one is 100 points higher is bullish. Remember the bottom at 5500 a few weeks ago? This is not what i expected a few hours ago, but i getting new signals now. If it has the power to get above the red area i showed a few hours ago, around 10300, than the double bottom is a fact and we should expect a new run at en ATH. This is purely what i have mentioned in my analysis, to get the little guy horny again (excuse me for my language). First step is to get above 10.400, normally 11.400 should be the minimum. But i expect it to get higher ofcourse, otherwise it won't be spectacular and attractive enough for the little guy to jump aboard for the highest prices. If it gets stable above 10.300/10.400 i will add to my position of 9570.
Comment: And seriously guys, shouldn't i get an award or something? I nailed it again, not once but several times :). And i've got less than 50 followers, i feel sorry for the ones who have missed my updates :)))
Comment: And we are in the red area, i dont think it will push through at once, but the strenght of the bitcoin has surprised me many times already
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Already 600 points plus for this trade, i have to add all the trades up, but i think i took about 3.500 points the last few hours Thats more than Bitcoin it self :)
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I will ad at 10150/10170
Comment: I am out at 10350
Comment: 780 points again :)
It could be making a small H&S, so it could drop to 10100/10150, i will buy back there. If not i will buy it back higher (probably)
Comment: I am having second thoughts about buying it back. I had rather seen it fall back to around 10.100 and than to see it get buyed hard with volume. This is starting to look more like an desperate attempt. With that bearish flag on the 15 min chart getting more realistic. I am still flat and will wait for confirmation
Comment:

I am back in it (long) at 10510, it is showing strength again
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They just wont let me sleep :) I had my stop at 10200. This is looking quite bad now. I have shorted it at 10210 now. With a stop at 10350
Comment: I am out again at 10010
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Comment: I am in at 9660
Comment: I have added at 9605
Comment: My stop is at 9375. If i am wrong, than this will be the first time the Bitcoin will do what it is supposed to do, that's fall and make a big correction (in time also). Untill now it usually just goes up like everythin is just perfectly normal. This is a risky trade, it goes against what the charts are telling me (on the 1 and 5 min chart), but i have been burned before because on these small time frame signals. So i am trying to do it the other way now. I dont think they will let it drop below 9400. Otherwise it will probably go much lower, and than it takes much more effot, time and money to get it back up again. My theory is what i mentioned in the beginning, to pull the little guy in this (free money) market
Comment:

both circled areas show a sell signal, for a short trade it still works ofcourse, but who would sell there if you knew 9200 is a minumun drop and the bearish flag suggests somewhere in the low 8000.

Comment: My guess was wrong, Big chance it will drop much more. But i am staying for now. Getting to emotional :). Already made a huge number of points profit, best now to take a step back
Comment: I went short at 9850
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Comment: I am out again at 9825, it should have dropped more under that support ine

Comment: I am short at 10825, short stop at 11000
Comment: I have added at 10965
Comment: stop at 1140
Comment: I have added at 10980, stop for all at 11080
Comment: This is, what i expect, an exhausted attempt to break hgher, or it's assembling on high prices to steadily break throug

Comment: I am moving my stop up to 11120, i am still not convinced i am wrong
Comment: I am still in, I have seen this bearish move breaking out upwards at may alt coins, but Bitcoin much much bigger, so it needs a llot of money to do the same

Comment:
It is starting to loook weaker, because it did not bounce big from 9800 it looks weak for me. Espect a second drop of 150/200 points soon
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I am short at 10825, short stop at 11000
what does this means? Sorry, i am new.
Reply
@shlee1,

Short means i sell high and try to buy back lower. for example at 10500. stop means, were i will take my loss. short stop means, my stoploss is close, so not at 12.000 for example. You should google 'stop loss"
Reply
shlee1 botje11
@botje11, thank you for your explanation, so you were thinking that it would drop after 10825, but you would buy it back at 11000 in case you were wrong?
Reply
@shlee1,
Yes exatly, but i have changed my mind in the mean time, i have put my stoploss higher, but risking more while doing that. I am not convinced it will take out the top again so easily. But i could be wrong ofcourse, i just react on what i see
Reply
shlee1 botje11
@botje11, Thank you for explaining it to me. yup, i understand situation changes.
Reply
very nice analysis & prediction! I'll post it on some forums.
Reply
botje11 mvndekant
@mvndekant,

Thank you :) and thank you :)
Reply
I totally agree - very impressive track record you're building here. Amazing speed on trading AND posting! :-)
Reply
botje11 BotTrader
@BotTrader,
Well thank you very much, finally a compliment :). I am really doing my best to update between trading. But it is costing me some energie
+2 Reply
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