This extreme overshoot is purely greed from amateur hour, smart money can see this and are waiting with seling their profits for better prices.
This is what i said in an update in my previous analyses:
My guess is, that this euforia will show something like this, i do espect a sharp fall from somewhere between 10300/10500 to scare to ones out who got in at these high prices. And a big chance we will see a spike upwards from there again, to do same all over again
I was in the low side with 10.500, but that was based on a prediction of a pattern i posted earlier. So this was an overshoot, the target from the 5500 bottom few weeks ago to 8000, is making an overshoot now.
I personally don't believe in these crypto's like most people do. I don't believe in easy money, that's the biggest lesson i have learned in my 20 years experience. And lately all you see is easy money, even at this stage and with this market cap. I have to be honoust, i have not really read my self in to all these crypto's, but still, it's commen sense for me. Ofcourse i believe the technology will bring us to a new era, but the benifits won't be for the little guys, at least not like this, or even 10 or 100 times more like some people believe.
In the Netherlands, we have this guy who has been seen online a few times, who sold his house, cars, absolutley everything and is now living in a very small rental with his family. He bought the Bitcoin with literally every Euro he had at about $3000. Yesterday was the first time i heard him talk on the radio, am i sure within a few weeks he will be seen on TV also. For me this is the beginning of the end. I dont mean the Bitcoin will drop to 1000 or less, but these prices wont be sustainable. I think the will be the turn around for the easy money. I believe this is all a campain just to get everyone horny for the bitcoin , so everyone will be trading . And than it's just strategy in getting people into to the market at high prices. This market is not in real balance, while shorting possibilities are not available as buying. I will believe this will bring the market more in balance.
i have no idea how long and where this will bring us untill then, 12k, 15k , 20k or maybe even much higher, but i dont think it will stay there very long. Untill than i am not going against this greedy trend (with exception of short trades), i am just trading on what the charts are telling me.
Good luck all
Sorry guys, i wanted to post this one earlier, but this f....nk tradingview website was updating or something. This would have been a perfect short moment. I did not expect this to happen this fast, i already got out at 10.100, a good 800 points. I see everything is getting sold now. I think people are getting realistic again. It's really dificult to set the bottom here, is it 9000, 8000, 7000, 6000? Or did they already scare the little people out now. One thing is almost certain for me, like i mentioned earlier, they will push it higher again, so people will start buying again from 10.500 and up, so they can do this all over again. Until there is no money left
If we get above 9800 agian, than i expect it to go to the red area below. There i will short it again, but than a normal amount but 2 seperate moments
Getting close now, finger on the trigger
Love it when a plan comes together :) I only got the first part in, it could turn ant try again, but i dont have a problem if it would tumble right now :)). I have my stop at 10500. if it drops below 10.000, i wil lower it to my entry level
I am in at 9945, have a short stop at that black line around 10100
To stay negative, it has to stay beneath that descending line. I will probably close if it gets above it with 50 points or so. Best scenario it it continues to stay below the previous low. But that chance is very low to repeat that a few times again
Above 9800 the short term downtrend is over. First step is 9680/9700
Like is said, 9800 :) it should stay above 9650 now
Big chance a double bottom is set at 9500/9400. The fact that the second one is 100 points higher is bullish. Remember the bottom at 5500 a few weeks ago? This is not what i expected a few hours ago, but i getting new signals now. If it has the power to get above the red area i showed a few hours ago, around 10300, than the double bottom is a fact and we should expect a new run at en ATH. This is purely what i have mentioned in my analysis, to get the little guy horny again (excuse me for my language). First step is to get above 10.400, normally 11.400 should be the minimum. But i expect it to get higher ofcourse, otherwise it won't be spectacular and attractive enough for the little guy to jump aboard for the highest prices. If it gets stable above 10.300/10.400 i will add to my position of 9570.
Already 600 points plus for this trade, i have to add all the trades up, but i think i took about 3.500 points the last few hours Thats more than Bitcoin it self :)
I will ad at 10150/10170
It could be making a small H&S, so it could drop to 10100/10150, i will buy back there. If not i will buy it back higher (probably)
I am back in it (long) at 10510, it is showing strength again
They just wont let me sleep :) I had my stop at 10200. This is looking quite bad now. I have shorted it at 10210 now. With a stop at 10350
both circled areas show a sell signal, for a short trade it still works ofcourse, but who would sell there if you knew 9200 is a minumun drop and the bearish flag suggests somewhere in the low 8000.
It is starting to loook weaker, because it did not bounce big from 9800 it looks weak for me. Espect a second drop of 150/200 points soon
Short means i sell high and try to buy back lower. for example at 10500. stop means, were i will take my loss. short stop means, my stoploss is close, so not at 12.000 for example. You should google 'stop loss"
Yes exatly, but i have changed my mind in the mean time, i have put my stoploss higher, but risking more while doing that. I am not convinced it will take out the top again so easily. But i could be wrong ofcourse, i just react on what i see
Thank you :) and thank you :)
Well thank you very much, finally a compliment :). I am really doing my best to update between trading. But it is costing me some energie