BTCUSD: Conflciting Signals? Bigger Picture Potential Bullish.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: Symmetrical triangle has appeared after a series of inside bars. This continuation pattern implies lower prices, but the bigger picture location makes for a very conflicted technical situation.

The break of this triangle points increases the possibility of a retest of the 5956 reversal zone boundary. Or just above that at the 6005 historical support. The conflict comes in when you zoom out and observe the price location.

The 6005 to 6565 levels are both significant supports where buyers have appeared previously. 8171 to 4983 is the largest magnitude .618 support zone that is relative to the entire bullish structure originating from the 150 lows. And the failed low configuration relative to the April lows.

These broad considerations point to a greater probability of a large recovery move. As I wrote in my S.C. article on ETH earlier, these markets are in position to rally, all they need is a spark.

The "spark" or catalyst is something a chart will not help you see. Usually they come out of no where and take the market by surprise. Kind of like the way Draghi hammered the Euro 300 pips the other day.

What you must decide is what time frame you are betting on. The short term is still showing signs of bearish momentum with the trend line and 7790 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) still intact.

At S.C., we are not day trading. Swing and position trades contain the scope of our evaluation, expectations and trade decisions. This means we are still betting on the bigger picture. We are betting that the attractiveness of the broader location outweighs the small time frame momentum.

If price pushes lower, we take more pain and get stopped out and will simply look for an opportunity to get back in. Otherwise we are positioned to benefit nicely if the a bullish spark takes this market by surprise.

In summary, we don't bet on opinions, we bet on probabilities. Any updates will appear on S.C., follow along for a better idea of the decision making process we use, especially in situations like this.
Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| | Cofounder (S.C.)

Nice job. What do you think guys about our S&P500 correlation?
Watch how I expected today's movement step-by-step!!

Probabilities is how we make our living. Price action looks very weak but if this level holds we could slowly climb out of here. I built an alternative count that could lead to a bit more downside if the 5800 level doesn't hold.
see you at 6k
see you at 6k
Higher probability is trend continuation. Which is down. The bullish "recovery" candles are weak as.
The BIS report released yesterday is very discouraging. I don't expect any money from institutional investors coming in the market for the next few months at least now. You are right about the range. I think we will see more downside and a test of the lower areas of that range over the next few weeks, potentially a test of the lower 5k area now.

BTC will still be in the very long term bullish trend channel even if it goes to 3k though.
SafeGamble doctorkesh
@doctorkesh, there is no such thing as institutional money not coming into the market at any given time. It has been coming in discreetly for quite a while. There is barely any selling (any volume, really), and although there is still no momentum this is a reasonable area to accumulate while waiting for the next cycle... even if 3k was likely, which it isn't. 5kish, maybe.
doctorkesh SafeGamble
@SafeGamble, You say there is no volume, and hence no selling.. but no volume means no buying either.

When the real institutional money comes in, we will all know and see it with huge buys. And we are talking about the overall market cap.

BTC is going to be the index coin as always. The money will go into other alts and new gen cryptos, like EOS, ETH, IOTA, and my current personal favourite Radix (coming out later this year).
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