Conchobhair

BTC 2011 vs 2017/18 bubbles

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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813 5
Both bubbles have %gains in the ranges of 6000-10000%

2011 corrected -94%
Comment:
I don't think you can compare patterns as Bitcoin used to have almost a 100% crypto market dominance back then. (about 55% now) I think comparing total market cap to the previous pattern makes more sense. And the last bear market only dropped about 86% and would be extremely surprised if we even hit 90% this one. Here is an image comparing the 2. I couldn't get a graph of the 2 together. https://i.imgur.com/JlqcgxP.jpg
Reply
Conchobhair Weavs844
@Weavs844, Hi weaves,

Thanks, nice chart. I agree that we definitely cannot compare based on dominance now vs then. However I am sceptical when it comes to comparing to the previous bear market.

The previous bear market was the product of a significant rally made in 2013 and I am sceptical or the authenticity of this rally.
If we look at the time in which this rally occurred, we find that it occurred in November-December 2013, where it posted +500% gains in one single month. This all occurred during a time where we have clear data that shows Mt Gox was maliciously operating multiple buying algorithms that could purchase bitcoin essentially for free. Please see https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of-massive-fraudulent-trading-activity-at-mt-gox-and-how-it-has-affected-the-price-of-bitcoin/ and view the trade log.

Thus the potential bear market in 2014-15 was merely a return-to-the-mean scenario after an artificial price run, as opposed to the speculative nature of the bubble we experienced in 2017. Thus I assume, that, the ensuing deflation of the bubble in 2018 cannot be compared to 2014-15.

Thanks for the comment Weaves, let me know what you think.
+1 Reply
"NO NO THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT .. SHE'S GONNA POP" aka "BITCOIN IS DEAD" or something with that sentiment .. (smiley would be usefull in the commentbox ..)
+1 Reply
Conchobhair Je_Buurman
@Je_Buurman, hehe.

@EuroMotif can we get emojis in the comments? Lol.
Reply
@Je_Buurman, heyy heyy heyy
+1 Reply
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