Well it's been months since my last update, and I have promised people to get back into the swing of things! I updated my logo, and have changed my user name from "carltonzone" to "CryptoPro" to match my YouTube channel name. I'm going to try to share my thoughts about the market at least once a week. I'm super glad to be back, and this is an exciting time to share!
Leading up to today, I was thinking that Jerome Powell was going to announce a definitive plan for the rate hike, and start to work on the inflation situation. I would have bet the farm on it. But the day leading up to the FED meeting, several prognosticators started talking about the possibility of a "dovish" announcement rather than a "hawkish" announcement. As usual, it turned out to be false hopes. But the announcement took me by surprise, with Jerome Powell basically saying NOTHING about the rate hike until the Q&A portion. That wasn't a good sign.
What he said when finally pressed about the rate hike, which was the "elephant in the middle of the room", took me by surprise. His answer of "we haven't decided what we're going to do yet" was not anywhere near what the guesses were leading up to the moment. In my opinion, this dodgy answer was neither dovish or hawkish. What it DID do was lend more to the uncertainty in the market. I think they know fully well that a rate hike will be happening in March, as everyone expected. But they didn't want to cause a negative impact on the market. As much as they thought it would have no effect, it was worse than just telling the truth.
While Powell was answering the question with his non-answer, the markets started tanking immediately. Leading up to the meeting, all technical indications in my opinion were pointing to a reversal. The optimistic pump ahead of the announcement turned out to be a fake out. Bitcoin, and the entire crypto market, along with the stock market, immediately started rolling over. But it looks to me that at this moment, there appears to be a slight pause on the 4-hour chart with a couple green candles forming. However, when looking at the 1-day chart, there is a crossover on the stochastic, and the MACD oscillators look like they have also crossed over and are headed downward.
What I was looking at before this happened was the return on price with the current stochastic peak on the 4-hour chart. We printed a significantly lower high, which to me confirms that the bearish downtrend is still in effect. If you look on my chart, I have a parallel trading zone laid out that starts from the all-time high through all of the impending downward trading. It looks like we are hugging that lower descending limit of the parallel trading channel. This is all I will go by until there is a significant reversal in trend, which we have no indications of.
Right now, it might be safe to say that we could continue the side-banding bouncing around until we arrive at the 32k level, where we have a significant volume node. It's too dangerous to predict what happens next. With the volatility of the market combined with the worldwide bearishness and the brewing conflict over Ukraine, I think the highest probability is a dip to 32k. After that, we just don't know what could happen. Things could turn around, and 32k could be a possible bottom point. But a dip below the support/resistance zone indicated on the chart is definitely within the realm of possibilities. I leave all possibilities open. A drop to the 20's could happen, and so could a reversal. That's why my strategy is to stick with my DCA game and play this for the long term.
It's too dangerous for me to expect taking gains within the year of 2022. But the longer term investors will win every single time. I learned my lesson about selling early, and unloading what I had accumulated in alts during 2018 through 2020. Riding this out lessens the risk, and the long term investors who accumulate along the way no matter how long this bearish market continues are going to end up being big winners. I bought into the "Bitcoin 200k peak in 2021" talk, and that was also a lesson learned. I missed out on accumulating when the previous 30k dip happened, and I'm no longer going to try to time the bottoms. Buying a little along the way on a monthly basis and holding out for 2 to 5 years is probably safest.
Don't take that as financial advice though. But one good bit of advice I CAN give is that we should never invest money that we can't afford to have tied up. My new philosophy is "set it and forget it". What I put in to the most promising projects is considered "money gone" in my mind. Sure, it's risky. But without risk comes no big rewards.
Share your thoughts about what you believe we have in store for us this spring, and heading into summer! I'd love to hear about it! Until next time, let's ride this out and have fun studying this crazy market!
Carlton
Your Crypto Pro
Leading up to today, I was thinking that Jerome Powell was going to announce a definitive plan for the rate hike, and start to work on the inflation situation. I would have bet the farm on it. But the day leading up to the FED meeting, several prognosticators started talking about the possibility of a "dovish" announcement rather than a "hawkish" announcement. As usual, it turned out to be false hopes. But the announcement took me by surprise, with Jerome Powell basically saying NOTHING about the rate hike until the Q&A portion. That wasn't a good sign.
What he said when finally pressed about the rate hike, which was the "elephant in the middle of the room", took me by surprise. His answer of "we haven't decided what we're going to do yet" was not anywhere near what the guesses were leading up to the moment. In my opinion, this dodgy answer was neither dovish or hawkish. What it DID do was lend more to the uncertainty in the market. I think they know fully well that a rate hike will be happening in March, as everyone expected. But they didn't want to cause a negative impact on the market. As much as they thought it would have no effect, it was worse than just telling the truth.
While Powell was answering the question with his non-answer, the markets started tanking immediately. Leading up to the meeting, all technical indications in my opinion were pointing to a reversal. The optimistic pump ahead of the announcement turned out to be a fake out. Bitcoin, and the entire crypto market, along with the stock market, immediately started rolling over. But it looks to me that at this moment, there appears to be a slight pause on the 4-hour chart with a couple green candles forming. However, when looking at the 1-day chart, there is a crossover on the stochastic, and the MACD oscillators look like they have also crossed over and are headed downward.
What I was looking at before this happened was the return on price with the current stochastic peak on the 4-hour chart. We printed a significantly lower high, which to me confirms that the bearish downtrend is still in effect. If you look on my chart, I have a parallel trading zone laid out that starts from the all-time high through all of the impending downward trading. It looks like we are hugging that lower descending limit of the parallel trading channel. This is all I will go by until there is a significant reversal in trend, which we have no indications of.
Right now, it might be safe to say that we could continue the side-banding bouncing around until we arrive at the 32k level, where we have a significant volume node. It's too dangerous to predict what happens next. With the volatility of the market combined with the worldwide bearishness and the brewing conflict over Ukraine, I think the highest probability is a dip to 32k. After that, we just don't know what could happen. Things could turn around, and 32k could be a possible bottom point. But a dip below the support/resistance zone indicated on the chart is definitely within the realm of possibilities. I leave all possibilities open. A drop to the 20's could happen, and so could a reversal. That's why my strategy is to stick with my DCA game and play this for the long term.
It's too dangerous for me to expect taking gains within the year of 2022. But the longer term investors will win every single time. I learned my lesson about selling early, and unloading what I had accumulated in alts during 2018 through 2020. Riding this out lessens the risk, and the long term investors who accumulate along the way no matter how long this bearish market continues are going to end up being big winners. I bought into the "Bitcoin 200k peak in 2021" talk, and that was also a lesson learned. I missed out on accumulating when the previous 30k dip happened, and I'm no longer going to try to time the bottoms. Buying a little along the way on a monthly basis and holding out for 2 to 5 years is probably safest.
Don't take that as financial advice though. But one good bit of advice I CAN give is that we should never invest money that we can't afford to have tied up. My new philosophy is "set it and forget it". What I put in to the most promising projects is considered "money gone" in my mind. Sure, it's risky. But without risk comes no big rewards.
Share your thoughts about what you believe we have in store for us this spring, and heading into summer! I'd love to hear about it! Until next time, let's ride this out and have fun studying this crazy market!
Carlton
Your Crypto Pro