Longer term Bitcoin correction may be needed

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is my first attempt at publishing a TA. In this market, anything is possible. We may have already put in the bottom, but there is good reason to think we may go lower for a while. It is still possible that we have some temporary uptrends on the way down. On the chart we can see that the high on December 2017 was the high point of a wave cycle which started May 2017. It was also the high point of a subwave cycle starting from October 2017. It indeed was the ATH and the high of a bull market starting from 2015. In other words it was the high on multiple levels and now we are facing correction of the high on multiple levels.

I have tried to rate the waves in 2017. You may have a case for another way of rating it, but the point is that wave 5 was the high point of waves both on a longer-term wave cycle as well as shorter term wave cycle. The low point occuring February 6, 2018 appears to have completed the short-term correction from the subwave pattern starting in October 2017, but we still may complete a ABC correction from the wave pattern starting from May 2017.
I expect that if we do make a new low, it could happen anytime starting from this month to May. But of course, none of us has the answer for sure until we look at the charts in hindsight.

It was just September 2017 that Bitcoin was around $3000. If Bitcoin falls around that level, which in the way I noted this is a Wave 4, and yet holds it, it is still bullish for the long-term perspective. With the huge amount of price increase from Oct 2017-December 2017, there is naturally going to be more to correct from.

With current prices (in the $9000 range at this time) being 3x higher than needed to maintain a long-term bullish trend , it makes me think that we may still be in a bubble at current prices.

Please do note, that anything still can happen and the market can do exactly the opposite of what we think it should do. But at this time the indicators are still bearish . On this chart the 13 day moving average moved below the 50 day moving average on March 7, 2018, but the price range is still just hanging on around the 200 day MA. If we were to move down very hard, it could put the 50 day moving average below the 200 day moving average which would be a very bearish sign. But this hasn't happened yet fortunately.

But at this point we should consider the trend bearish , until clearly proven otherwise. But if things were to change and if the price were to go above the 50day moving average long enough for the 13 day moving average to cross upwards, then that would be a strong uptrend indicator.

I do not recommend any new long or short positions at the current levels.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, only just sharing my thoughts. Let me know what you think.
That google usage script did not work but you can view the usage of bitcoin on this link
On the "google usage" website accessed today 3/14/18 there has been a dramatic decline of the usage of the word "bitcoin" corresponding also with the price decline.
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://ssl.gstatic.com/trends_nrtr/1328_RC04/embed_loader.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> trends.embed.renderExploreWidget("TIMESERIES", {"comparisonItem":,"category":0,"property":""}, {"exploreQuery":"date=today%205-y&q=bitcoin","guestPath":"https://trends.google.com:443/trends/embed/"}); </script>
Absolutely needs to be longer term unwind. Anecdotally I can tell you we are no where near the pain of 2014 yet.

Personally I don't think we will spend any significant time above $10k now for a good few months at least, as indicated roughly by your C wave.
@BRRD, Yes, we could have a bear market as long as that or even longer. But on the other hand, we may start to come out of this within 1-3 months. It may be possible that other altcoins may take more of the lead in the future than before.
+1 Reply
BRRD cedarfox
@cedarfox, I'm very unsure of a quick turnaround from here.

IMO the only way this could happen would be if investment banks really start pumping Bitcoin and crypto very soon. More likely they will bide their time and accumulate over as long a time as possible.

From a technical perspective we have been creating a ton of resistance above and are very close to creating a whole new dimension of new resistance. Moving averages on daily time frame are just starting to turn really bearish for the first time in years. Fundamentals such as lightning network being criticised by core devs as being insecure and regulation coming in to break up the party. All these things point to a longer term bear.
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