BTCUSD: 16000 and then...

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Yeah, this chart probably looks pretty insane, maybe just stoopid, but I think it's important to plan for the worst. Why? Because I'm not intelligent enough to know what's going on even most of the time, let alone all the time. It's our money, plans and dreams we're playing with so you should understand what people mean when they say Bitcoin is a bubble.

Basically every time you heard about Bitcoin in the media doing crazy things, we were at the top of a Bubble. Just like in Dec 2013, when I bought my first Bitcoin ahhh. Then the bubble burst and I walk away not understanding. Thinking that was fun but also a bit pissed that I didn't get lambo riched from it. Not ever realising what an amazing opportunity I was passing up. As it happened there were other opportunities. Bitcoin dropped in price and then shot up in 2017. Wow another bubble!

Now I give up thinking that the price will definitely correct after 1 or 2 months (lol what a stoopid guy, it's so gonna correct).

I have to consider that we really are at the top of a bubble. Not really so stoopid when you think about it, because really you are just me coming to crypto in 2013 right when the bubble bursts (just don't walk away this time budd). So the chart, ya. You see the first two bubbles look very similar (of course they doo stoopid, the universe is fractal ). Well, I think now we are at the bottom of one of those big dips that come after the initial crash (shit I used that word, well I already said bubble like 1000 times anyway). We're going to go up into a massive bulltrap (no, this is the real bull trap guys). Well this might be, then again it might not be. May be we race to the moon muchacho what do you think ;)

I think it's better to be prepared for the (second) worst case, which is what I present here. If your bag holding hold then sell at the top of the bull trap. I'm going to ride it up to the top too. I think (hope) about 16000.

Sell. Get out. Learn about crypto, trading and how you can take advantage of all the amazing swing trading opportunities coming this year.
Comment: This is the setup for this scenario.

Comment: My guess we are going to meet the 50 MA by moving up. This could take us to about 13.8k - 14k. Then there'll be a brief spike up to 16k and crash down to the mean (50). Just look at Dec 2013 above.
Comment: Price is being contained between 10.8k and 12k. With continuation of ascending higher lows this bodes well for a breakout. Patience is required, in 2013 we spent a week in this well, we might spend longer down here this time.
Comment: Bitcoin looks like it finally broke support. This is what the 8kers have been waiting for. It will have to get past support at 9k first, but we may well join the purple trend line at 8.7. Let's hope for a good bounce wherever it lands.
Comment: Well 8kers didn't get their fill yet. We still have good support. I'm still on for the climb up, but we may in deed have another drop down first. I'v seen a convincing argument of 7k

some "top traders" also comparing against gold (which is such a close analog to BTC at least technically), look here

Just need patience.
Comment: Another reason I'm starting to suspect a dip in BTC, before a sharp rise is the correlation between significant BTC dips and BCHBTC touching major support lines.
Comment: It hit square on the trendline.
Not convinced this is the bottom. I'm going to give it at least till tomorrow. Bulls look weak, don't think bears have given up yet.
Comment: 2018 will be Wave 4 on our journey. Wave 2 was long and flat, so this leg should be steeper and quicker. 4k excessive, but 5 - 6k is very possible imo.
Comment: Looks like we are definitely going down. OK, correction will be more dramatic. We always want the best but must prepare for the worst. I think this will be the first of a two stage ATH pattern a la 2013. Guys careful with those longs. We need to find support and what is support? Old resistance. That means probably the resistance from the previous trading channel from 2016. For us this places a bottom at around 4000 to 5000 USD.
Comment: BTC 0.786 correction
what is "long time" in crypto
BarclayJames Bullion_Money
@Bullion_Money, This analysis is no longer valid. See last update. I don't see a bull trap anymore, that possibility has passed. We will go down low and then move back up. Thanks.
I dunno barclay, It's not setting up real well for a short me thinks. I think we hit wave 5 of the first major wave 1 and corrective wave 2 that we're in, since the last peak in 14? Potentially there are waves 3 and 5 to come this year. Starting with an march to may/june climb and one more before the end of the year. Which then will lead to another 14'-15' bear market. For 2019-2021 unless the dollar folds.
BarclayJames Mikelikescrypto
@Mikelikescrypto, Hey Mike Tbh honest I'm not thinking of shorting now, but the link I posted (blue chart) points to 7k. I don't always agree with him, but BTC is highly complex compared to alt markets and that guy knows BTC really well imo. Here's another chart of his comparing with gold the correlation is so so good:

If it holds then we can expect rise to ?? (i think 16k). It's probably a bull trap though imo. This correction we have now is very significant, I don't see it fixing until later in the year. But my opinions are always changing with the market. I sold my BTC before the dip and now I'm waiting for confirmation either way. The market is too sketchy for me just to say "buy, it's cheap", because we could slide another 3k before bouncing. And yeah maybe we need a real bounce to get things rolling?

Like I say we might not be heading for 4k but I'm not yet sure we'll see 20k until Aug/Sept, we'll see anyhoo

and yeah "unless the dollar folds" haha you too ;)
+1 Reply
Interesting chart. Dammit though boi, I'm trying to retire this year!
BarclayJames NickPadovani
@NickPadovani, yeah that was my plan too. We'll see, might just have to work a bit harder for that dream.
mumator BarclayJames
@BarclayJames, it all depends of point of view. Correction is not so big. Prica was pump in December and today we are coming back to normal.
+1 Reply
@mumator, Yes, I like log charts normally, but I don't find it useful in this case. What bothers me most of all is how the moving averages are curling down so violently on the daily. This is the first time since Aug 2016 we see the 50 MA change direction like this during a correction and point strongly down.

And we know what happened then

And idk but I think this correction does not have the same kind of support as that one did.
mumator BarclayJames
@BarclayJames, my idea allows to 6600$ in February...and price above 20k$ maybe in August
@mumator, Yes, definitely possible. Sounds better than mine anyhow. Look at the linear chart. I think unless we go up now to new ATH then we must capitulate; bubble has popped. BUT is it a minor pop, like in Apr 2013 or is it major problem like end of 2013. I think maybe you are right. We just came out of a longer bearish period. Then the 2017 bubble is the first in 2013. Next we will see a much larger second bubble ($$$). Perhaps we will have 20k again in Aug/Sept.
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