MM Crypto and Carl the Moon in their videos this morning mentioned the history of miner capitulation in the "hash ribbons" indicator and how that has created Bitcoin buy opportunities a few weeks later. A year later BTC has always been significantly higher in price after those buy opps. So I decided to do my own research to come up with what is a reasonable expectation for price in a year since miner capitulation is happening now again.
I got into the weekly BLX chart on tradingview. I added the "hash ribbons" indicator to look at miner capitulation dates and the buy dates shortly thereafter. I then looked at the BTC price one year after the buy dates. Here is the history:
Aug 2011 Miner Capitulation $8.16
Nov 2011 Buy Signal $2.01
Nov 2012 1 Yr after Buy $12.40 517%
Apr 2012 Miner Capitulation $4.90
Jun 2012 Buy Signal $6.90
Jun 2013 1 Yr after Buy $99.39 1340%
Dec 2012 Miner Capitulation $13.38
Jan 2013 Buy Signal $20.48
Jan 2014 1 Yr after Buy $816.24 3886%
Dec 2014 Miner Capitulation $262.65
Jan 2015 Buy Signal $227.01
Jan 2016 1 Yr after Buy $447.82 97.3%
May 2015 Miner Capitulation $240.58
Late May 2015 Buy Signal $231.56
Late May 2016 1 Yr after Buy $575.65 149%
Jul 2016 Miner Capitulation $623.03
Aug 2016 Buy Signal $572.67
Aug 2017 1 Yr after Buy $4335.89 657%
Oct 2018 Miner Capitulation $6443.73
Jan 2019 Buy Signal $3533.25
Jan 2020 1 Yr after Buy $8702.65 146%
The average gain 1 year after the 7 buy signals is 970%. If you take out the "outlier" 3886% in Jan 2014, then the average for the other 6 gains is 484%. If you just take the last 4 gains the average is 262%.
In Nov 2019 there was a miner capitulation and the price was $6914.95. One month later in Dec 2019 there was a buy signal at $6438.82. Therefore in Dec 2020, it is anticipated that the BTC price will be 262 to 484% over that buy signal price or $23000 to $37000.
We just got another miner capitulation a week or so ago at $5832. The average price of the buy signal in a few weeks based on history is $5395 or by May 2020. 1 year after that buy signal the Bitcoin price can be expected to increase 262 to 484% or be at $19000 to $31000 by May 2021.
I think these are reasonable expectations for the Bitcoin price a year from now based on past historical gains 1 year after buy signals from miner capitulations.
I got into the weekly BLX chart on tradingview. I added the "hash ribbons" indicator to look at miner capitulation dates and the buy dates shortly thereafter. I then looked at the BTC price one year after the buy dates. Here is the history:
Aug 2011 Miner Capitulation $8.16
Nov 2011 Buy Signal $2.01
Nov 2012 1 Yr after Buy $12.40 517%
Apr 2012 Miner Capitulation $4.90
Jun 2012 Buy Signal $6.90
Jun 2013 1 Yr after Buy $99.39 1340%
Dec 2012 Miner Capitulation $13.38
Jan 2013 Buy Signal $20.48
Jan 2014 1 Yr after Buy $816.24 3886%
Dec 2014 Miner Capitulation $262.65
Jan 2015 Buy Signal $227.01
Jan 2016 1 Yr after Buy $447.82 97.3%
May 2015 Miner Capitulation $240.58
Late May 2015 Buy Signal $231.56
Late May 2016 1 Yr after Buy $575.65 149%
Jul 2016 Miner Capitulation $623.03
Aug 2016 Buy Signal $572.67
Aug 2017 1 Yr after Buy $4335.89 657%
Oct 2018 Miner Capitulation $6443.73
Jan 2019 Buy Signal $3533.25
Jan 2020 1 Yr after Buy $8702.65 146%
The average gain 1 year after the 7 buy signals is 970%. If you take out the "outlier" 3886% in Jan 2014, then the average for the other 6 gains is 484%. If you just take the last 4 gains the average is 262%.
In Nov 2019 there was a miner capitulation and the price was $6914.95. One month later in Dec 2019 there was a buy signal at $6438.82. Therefore in Dec 2020, it is anticipated that the BTC price will be 262 to 484% over that buy signal price or $23000 to $37000.
We just got another miner capitulation a week or so ago at $5832. The average price of the buy signal in a few weeks based on history is $5395 or by May 2020. 1 year after that buy signal the Bitcoin price can be expected to increase 262 to 484% or be at $19000 to $31000 by May 2021.
I think these are reasonable expectations for the Bitcoin price a year from now based on past historical gains 1 year after buy signals from miner capitulations.