Parabolic bitcoin runs typically see 30% to 40% corrections eventually. Such a run also happened in 2015
I believe this historic run is over, a lot of talk of this run going to 10K has made traders very bullish . The balance of longs vs. shorts has now flipped. The Bitmex Funding and Premium clearly show the flip.
A recent breach of the local high proved that there were not enough liquidations or spot buyers at these levels to drive the price above $8400. Once it ran above the $6200 level, this rally was primarily driven by liquidations. As a result, it was primarily long term holders who benefitted.
The liquidations of long positions will now drive the price lower.
Historically, the faster the drop the lower it goes. In 2015 it was a fast correction of 40%:
That correction found support on the 24 month Sidereal EMA . That EMA will likely be around $5500 in the last week of May which coincides with a 34% price drop from the highs.
Of course, if the buyers step in here, it will not correct as much, it may rebound to $8000. In this less likely scenario, I expect the price to only reach the alternate target of $6450 by the end of June. After that, there would be a new bull run.
It looks like $8400 will be the new price ceiling for most of the summer. By September Bitcoin should breach that level as well.
I believe this historic run is over, a lot of talk of this run going to 10K has made traders very bullish . The balance of longs vs. shorts has now flipped. The Bitmex Funding and Premium clearly show the flip.
A recent breach of the local high proved that there were not enough liquidations or spot buyers at these levels to drive the price above $8400. Once it ran above the $6200 level, this rally was primarily driven by liquidations. As a result, it was primarily long term holders who benefitted.
The liquidations of long positions will now drive the price lower.
Historically, the faster the drop the lower it goes. In 2015 it was a fast correction of 40%:
That correction found support on the 24 month Sidereal EMA . That EMA will likely be around $5500 in the last week of May which coincides with a 34% price drop from the highs.
Of course, if the buyers step in here, it will not correct as much, it may rebound to $8000. In this less likely scenario, I expect the price to only reach the alternate target of $6450 by the end of June. After that, there would be a new bull run.
It looks like $8400 will be the new price ceiling for most of the summer. By September Bitcoin should breach that level as well.
