iVonomics
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Bitcoin to $3,5k?! Textbook Elliot Correction Waves for Bitcoin

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
If we view the BTC chart from its last bullrun, we can chart a clear, almost textbook Elliot Wave 5-3 pattern:

The bullrun itself consists of 5 waves in the main trend: 3 strong uptrends, and 2 small downtrends, up to the all-time-high of 20k.

The first of three correction waves from the ATH then has its first deep dive to point A at around $6k (after having completed 5 waves in the downtrend).
Then the second correction wave moves back up to point B close to $12k: note how the wave from A to B has only 3 waves. This is an indicator that this wave is not the start of a wave, but part of a larger wave.

Which brings us to the current C-wave of the correction wave. In order to complete this wave we should see 5 waves in the current downtrend channel , back to the bottom of the larger downtrend channel . The current wave should then bring us back down to around $5.9k (point 3), then back up to just over $7k (4), and finally all the way down to the end of the correction wave around $3.5k (5, C).

One argument against this Elliot Correction Wave is that it brings us too far down compared to the original start of the wave. Other than that, the pattern is nearly textbook for a 5-3 Elliot Wave formation.

Look for a first confirmation of the pattern on the breaking of the green uptrend (around $7.7k).

Please share any thoughts and feedback you might have. I'd love to hear your opinions on this.
Mar 28
Comment: The bulls are currently trying to defeat the bears. See how BTC is bouncing right off the green trendline? This might be the bulls' best shot at a trend reversal, creating a lower low and potentially a higher high.

Still, I dont believe the bears will be so easily exhausted. The overall market trend still feels very bearish, and I strongly feel that we haven't seen the bottom yet. It will be exciting to watch how this unfolds though!
Mar 29
Comment: Trendline is broken, things could go down fast from here. Expect a drop straight to 7.2k, where we should find at least a little support, and probably an attempt at a bull charge.

Once the 7.2k resistance fails, I'm expecting a free fall down to 5.9k.
Apr 05
Comment: So, the basic pattern seems to still be unfolding, but BTC found support sooner than I thought! Rather than falling all the way down to 5.9k in the third wave, it bounced off of the .786 fib retracement level. I am still expecting the 5th downtrend wave to complete, but our target should now be adjusted upwards. I am now expecting 5.9k to be the new target for the 5th wave.

Additionally, our downtrend channel is now forming a descending triangle, which seems to bode well for a strong reversal after completing the 5th wave! Could the end of the downtrend be near?
Apr 05
Comment: Upon further analyzing the descending triangle, I cant shake the feeling that there is room for an extra up/downwave... up from 5.9k back to the fib retracement level at 6.5k, which then acts as resistance, and then back down to 5.3k before we can finally break out.
So, the basic pattern seems to still be unfolding, but BTC found support sooner than I thought! Rather than falling all the way down to 5.9k in the third wave, it bounced off of the .786 fib retracement level. I am still expecting the 5th downtrend wave to complete, but our target should now be adjusted upwards. I am now expecting 5.9k to be the new target for the 5th wave.

Additionally, our downtrend channel is now forming a descending triangle, which seems to bode well for a strong reversal after completing the 5th wave! Could the end of the downtrend be near?
Reply
excellent !
+1 Reply
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