This isn't a fully blown analysis as much as a quick update. We are on something like day 10 of the current downtrend, wave E of a major corrective pattern that started in March. Everyone wonders where Bitcoin will go next. Of course if any of us had that answer we would be rich.
Background: If you remember my earlier TA, we called the ATH in March as an ambitious B wave, meaning February was the last motive (growth) wave before beginning this complex correction. I won't pretend to be an Elliot Wave expert but the pattern is clearly approaching the final stretch of it's final corrective wave down as part of an ABCDE correction.
Whats Next: This means the bottom is close, if not in terms of price, then in terms of time. Since historically we have a pattern (since December) of week 2 downtrend, week 4 uptrend, we can possibly look for the bottom to land any day now. I could see a rally in the coming day(s) to week, but I'm not confident that this will be a strong breakout as much as it will be another consolidation in the 50-56k range, at best; and a consolidation in the 40-45k range at worst.
If we succesfully bounce from the 200 DMA, or close above it, the bull run could continue. If we close under it, the next strong support zone is around 34k and we could have confirmation of a bear cycle, if not a bear season at that point. Also if we are feeling particularly bullish, the 200 EMA appears to be a strong support so far and we could see another test and bounce from there.
In terms of timeline, I'd like to see us recover over the 20/21w MAs by the weekend. Falling under the 20/21w MAs isn't without precedent, in 2013's bull run we fell under it for a few days, and in 2017's we wicked under it quite a few times. But the 200 DMA is where I personally draw a line between a bear cycle and bull cycle.
Note: Interestingly the point of control for the past couple months is around 56k; and the value area from a price volume perspective has a bottom range around 50k, suggesting Bitcoin will be drawn upwards to that zone once this correction plays out. Stoch RSI is extremely oversold for 4 days, which is above the average for this cycle. Both of these suggest to me, besides clear market manipulation, that we also are due for a reversal soon, but that reversal may be weak or temporary and may precede additional drops as we look for the bottom of this E wave.
Background: If you remember my earlier TA, we called the ATH in March as an ambitious B wave, meaning February was the last motive (growth) wave before beginning this complex correction. I won't pretend to be an Elliot Wave expert but the pattern is clearly approaching the final stretch of it's final corrective wave down as part of an ABCDE correction.
Whats Next: This means the bottom is close, if not in terms of price, then in terms of time. Since historically we have a pattern (since December) of week 2 downtrend, week 4 uptrend, we can possibly look for the bottom to land any day now. I could see a rally in the coming day(s) to week, but I'm not confident that this will be a strong breakout as much as it will be another consolidation in the 50-56k range, at best; and a consolidation in the 40-45k range at worst.
If we succesfully bounce from the 200 DMA, or close above it, the bull run could continue. If we close under it, the next strong support zone is around 34k and we could have confirmation of a bear cycle, if not a bear season at that point. Also if we are feeling particularly bullish, the 200 EMA appears to be a strong support so far and we could see another test and bounce from there.
In terms of timeline, I'd like to see us recover over the 20/21w MAs by the weekend. Falling under the 20/21w MAs isn't without precedent, in 2013's bull run we fell under it for a few days, and in 2017's we wicked under it quite a few times. But the 200 DMA is where I personally draw a line between a bear cycle and bull cycle.
Note: Interestingly the point of control for the past couple months is around 56k; and the value area from a price volume perspective has a bottom range around 50k, suggesting Bitcoin will be drawn upwards to that zone once this correction plays out. Stoch RSI is extremely oversold for 4 days, which is above the average for this cycle. Both of these suggest to me, besides clear market manipulation, that we also are due for a reversal soon, but that reversal may be weak or temporary and may precede additional drops as we look for the bottom of this E wave.