This ed post will be a bit different to the current track I am following. The reason will soon become clear. My take on this personal value dilemma explains a dilemma that Bitcoin is facing, and which drives it over the chart. It is a true story, so be patient and see if you see the Bitcoin that I see, within it. It illustrates the play of subjective, objective, and potential value so well that I had to put it down. Excuse me for being vague, but specific details here would just devalue the story and confuse.
A long time ago, I was doing Baseline Monitoring in natural environments in the developing world. It suited my drive to make sense through finding consistencies and indicators of change in what seemed like overwhelming chaotic complexity. I loved it and that is obviously why I love trading as well.
On this day I was working near some local people who were clearing some bush. One of the men exclaimed and caused a commotion and having a look myself, I found he unearthed a rotten away leather purse with coins eroded into rusty connected disks. There was one silver coin clearly salvageable though.
I, knowing that I loved where I was and what I was doing, saw it as a possible piece of memorabilia that would put me back there at that moment at any moment in the future. 100% Subjective value. The man, looking at it objectively, saw the twinkle in my eye and possibly considering the illiquid ‘memorabilia coin market’, decided that I would be the most eager buyer and offered to sell it to me. We negotiated and, in our ignorance, came to a “fair price” that amounted to our objective value.
The next day, thinking what I paid, I had a bit of buyer’s remorse, not knowing what I could sell it for (objective value). I reasoned it away with the argument that the coin was worth it after all as the subjective value was the reason for buying it. Without having Google handy to have a look at objective value, I had it incorporated into a necklace made locally.
Yesterday, I was shown the necklace and asked where it came from. I got to tell the whole story, go back there in my mind, and experience that same moment long ago. Going back to that spot today, would literally take weeks and thousands of Dollars. Yes, I did now “consult Google”. It turned out to be a 1780 Maria Theresa Thaler. Yes, my heart skipped a beat when I read that there were only 3 original strikes in some museum. Wikipedia also told me that this coin was phenomenally successful as it was not devalued as the currencies that it was competing against were. In its day it took the world by storm and became the preferred currency in many large cross-border areas across the globe, surpassing governmental currencies and is apparently still today a protected currency in the UK. Sound familiar?
Many people are not buying Bitcoin as memorabilia but as a dream. The lottery catch phrase comes to mind: “buying a license to dream”. The odds are better in Bitcoin than in the lotteries. Bitcoin is awash with subjective emotional valuations by people naturally seeing it as a getting rich bet on a sure thing. If they are only exposed up to where they can handle the risks, I do not see much wrong with that.
Objective value is gradually developing through 1) time in existence, 2) increased liquidity, 3) diversity and number of participants, and 4) its incorporation in use cases and business models. This positive developing objective value seems clear to me on the chart. It is progressively whispering Potential value to more and more people and businesses. Looking at the chart: objectivity is related to the path we have come and potential, obviously where we might go.
My conclusion: Bitcoin is still currently suffering wild price fluctuations with over and under estimations of objective true value. This is simply because it is difficult without a government’s economy to measure it by or assets to evaluate. Retail traders’ subjective short-term emotions cause enough volatility to create great opportunities. I see this dissipate through time and the price, ignoring the decreasing spikes in both directions, to keep creeping higher, pointing more to potential long-term potential value (and sustainable growth). Plan as to how to take advantage of this if you agree. Very Important to me: Please leave a like if you found value or if you think somebody else might, please comment and have your voice heard, and please follow if you think this is going somewhere that you would like to know about.
PS Unfortunately, I then found via Google, that the coin was a post 1805 restrike (because of the U being a V and the tail feathers), still valuable, but not dream material much beyond the silver and my reminiscing about the past. Do not take my conclusions as gospel, take my conclusions, and see if you agree or can improve on them.
A long time ago, I was doing Baseline Monitoring in natural environments in the developing world. It suited my drive to make sense through finding consistencies and indicators of change in what seemed like overwhelming chaotic complexity. I loved it and that is obviously why I love trading as well.
On this day I was working near some local people who were clearing some bush. One of the men exclaimed and caused a commotion and having a look myself, I found he unearthed a rotten away leather purse with coins eroded into rusty connected disks. There was one silver coin clearly salvageable though.
I, knowing that I loved where I was and what I was doing, saw it as a possible piece of memorabilia that would put me back there at that moment at any moment in the future. 100% Subjective value. The man, looking at it objectively, saw the twinkle in my eye and possibly considering the illiquid ‘memorabilia coin market’, decided that I would be the most eager buyer and offered to sell it to me. We negotiated and, in our ignorance, came to a “fair price” that amounted to our objective value.
The next day, thinking what I paid, I had a bit of buyer’s remorse, not knowing what I could sell it for (objective value). I reasoned it away with the argument that the coin was worth it after all as the subjective value was the reason for buying it. Without having Google handy to have a look at objective value, I had it incorporated into a necklace made locally.
Yesterday, I was shown the necklace and asked where it came from. I got to tell the whole story, go back there in my mind, and experience that same moment long ago. Going back to that spot today, would literally take weeks and thousands of Dollars. Yes, I did now “consult Google”. It turned out to be a 1780 Maria Theresa Thaler. Yes, my heart skipped a beat when I read that there were only 3 original strikes in some museum. Wikipedia also told me that this coin was phenomenally successful as it was not devalued as the currencies that it was competing against were. In its day it took the world by storm and became the preferred currency in many large cross-border areas across the globe, surpassing governmental currencies and is apparently still today a protected currency in the UK. Sound familiar?
Many people are not buying Bitcoin as memorabilia but as a dream. The lottery catch phrase comes to mind: “buying a license to dream”. The odds are better in Bitcoin than in the lotteries. Bitcoin is awash with subjective emotional valuations by people naturally seeing it as a getting rich bet on a sure thing. If they are only exposed up to where they can handle the risks, I do not see much wrong with that.
Objective value is gradually developing through 1) time in existence, 2) increased liquidity, 3) diversity and number of participants, and 4) its incorporation in use cases and business models. This positive developing objective value seems clear to me on the chart. It is progressively whispering Potential value to more and more people and businesses. Looking at the chart: objectivity is related to the path we have come and potential, obviously where we might go.
My conclusion: Bitcoin is still currently suffering wild price fluctuations with over and under estimations of objective true value. This is simply because it is difficult without a government’s economy to measure it by or assets to evaluate. Retail traders’ subjective short-term emotions cause enough volatility to create great opportunities. I see this dissipate through time and the price, ignoring the decreasing spikes in both directions, to keep creeping higher, pointing more to potential long-term potential value (and sustainable growth). Plan as to how to take advantage of this if you agree. Very Important to me: Please leave a like if you found value or if you think somebody else might, please comment and have your voice heard, and please follow if you think this is going somewhere that you would like to know about.
PS Unfortunately, I then found via Google, that the coin was a post 1805 restrike (because of the U being a V and the tail feathers), still valuable, but not dream material much beyond the silver and my reminiscing about the past. Do not take my conclusions as gospel, take my conclusions, and see if you agree or can improve on them.
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