Over the last installments we anticipated a massive move and pointed out the ambivalence of signals we received from the overarching chart narrative. The last 24 trading hours have indeed brought the anticipated move, although the direction in which it went is not the generally desired one. Looking at the weekly chart on Bitstamp, we hesitantly deduct a short- and medium term bearish picture. The support line in the 7500ish range originates from October 2017 with very but distinct connections in August 2018 (resistance) and all through 2019 (support). From April to November 2018 the price all but oscillated around this mark (in logarithmic view). After overselling in December 2018 and subsequently bouncing to 14000 in mid-year 2019, we have once more returned.
Zooming out all the way to 2016 shows a long range trend channel that the 2017 parabolic run left behind only to break it to the downside in late 2018. We bounced off the upper band of the channel in June and now find ourselves hoping for a weekly close inside or upwards of a very broadly painted triangle pattern. To achieve this, the price would have to stay above the 7500 range and subsequently follow the lower boundary of the triangle up to and beyond 8050 before the end of the year. Less desirable but more probable seems a scenario in which we end up testing the 2018 support at around 6000. If played out straightforward, this setup could then solidify 6000 as a long term support line from which we could re-attack the channel, which, while not reaching McAfee-esque estimations, would put us near 50000 at the end of next year.
Zooming out all the way to 2016 shows a long range trend channel that the 2017 parabolic run left behind only to break it to the downside in late 2018. We bounced off the upper band of the channel in June and now find ourselves hoping for a weekly close inside or upwards of a very broadly painted triangle pattern. To achieve this, the price would have to stay above the 7500 range and subsequently follow the lower boundary of the triangle up to and beyond 8050 before the end of the year. Less desirable but more probable seems a scenario in which we end up testing the 2018 support at around 6000. If played out straightforward, this setup could then solidify 6000 as a long term support line from which we could re-attack the channel, which, while not reaching McAfee-esque estimations, would put us near 50000 at the end of next year.