Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the daily chart, we can see that BTC continues to move in a way that is very similar to what we saw in early may. If you recall from my last post, I showed how the area prior to what is now "Move A" had two distinct peaks, followed by a bull flag and then an explosive move higher. You can see that those moves happened exactly on the midline of my blue downtrend channel.
Comparing that action to what is happening now, we can see that BTC has printed two peaks, followed by what currently looks like a bull flag (Move B.) Interestingly, that has happened exactly on the top of my downtrend channel, where as Move A happened exactly on the midline.
So, from a pure price pattern standpoint, we do still look very similar to what was seen before the explosive move higher in early May. As, I've shown in prior analyses, the rally from the base of Move A to the Move B's second peak, was about 83%. I also showed you how by using simple price target finding, we can see that the breakout from the downtrend channel yields a price target around 13,500. I also showed you how that is EXACTLY 83% higher as well. So, if we do see a continuation higher, it would be nearly a mirror image of the explosive move we had in early May.
With that said, there are definitely a few challenges in the way. First off, BTC is just under the 38.2% retrace (in red) of the entire bear market. Since the 382 is a very important Fib level, it could definitely act as resistance. In fact, I would advise that traders be very cautious here, until we see BTC surpass that level, either on high volume or by confirming it as new support.
Even if BTC does surpass the 382, there is a pivot high just above there at about 9950. If BTC is able to push above each of those levels, I think we could really see a surge in price, that would take us up toward the 50% retrace, and then ultimately to the target area around 13,500.
The point of this analysis is to show that there is a clear path to the 13,500 level. However, there are a series of barriers in the way. As traders and analysts, we have to assess the market's reaction to each one of those barriers, to form a constantly evolving opinion on how we respond. Just because I have a 13,500 price target on my chart right now, doesn't mean that I'm going to sit on my hands hoping and praying that BTC will reach it, if we start to roll over here. On the contrary, I will be quick to exit. On the 4 hour chart (not pictured) BTC could be forming a head and shoulders or a bull flag. It isn't immediately clear yet. So, that is something that I'm watching to determine how things will most likely unfold from here.
The MACD is rising after a recent bullish crossover. However, we are at higher highs on price, and haven't formed a higher high in momentum. That doesn't mean that the rally is dead, it's just an indicator that momentum has been slowing.
The NVT is still in the red and trending sideways. Eventually, it will break, and we will see a massive correction as a result. However, that could still be weeks away. If we look at how long the NVT was red before the fall from 6,000, we can see that it was off and on for about five months. So, that is just something to keep in the back of your mind.
For now, BTC remains in a powerful uptrend, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows. Until that trend is broken, there is no reason to fight it.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Comparing that action to what is happening now, we can see that BTC has printed two peaks, followed by what currently looks like a bull flag (Move B.) Interestingly, that has happened exactly on the top of my downtrend channel, where as Move A happened exactly on the midline.
So, from a pure price pattern standpoint, we do still look very similar to what was seen before the explosive move higher in early May. As, I've shown in prior analyses, the rally from the base of Move A to the Move B's second peak, was about 83%. I also showed you how by using simple price target finding, we can see that the breakout from the downtrend channel yields a price target around 13,500. I also showed you how that is EXACTLY 83% higher as well. So, if we do see a continuation higher, it would be nearly a mirror image of the explosive move we had in early May.
With that said, there are definitely a few challenges in the way. First off, BTC is just under the 38.2% retrace (in red) of the entire bear market. Since the 382 is a very important Fib level, it could definitely act as resistance. In fact, I would advise that traders be very cautious here, until we see BTC surpass that level, either on high volume or by confirming it as new support.
Even if BTC does surpass the 382, there is a pivot high just above there at about 9950. If BTC is able to push above each of those levels, I think we could really see a surge in price, that would take us up toward the 50% retrace, and then ultimately to the target area around 13,500.
The point of this analysis is to show that there is a clear path to the 13,500 level. However, there are a series of barriers in the way. As traders and analysts, we have to assess the market's reaction to each one of those barriers, to form a constantly evolving opinion on how we respond. Just because I have a 13,500 price target on my chart right now, doesn't mean that I'm going to sit on my hands hoping and praying that BTC will reach it, if we start to roll over here. On the contrary, I will be quick to exit. On the 4 hour chart (not pictured) BTC could be forming a head and shoulders or a bull flag. It isn't immediately clear yet. So, that is something that I'm watching to determine how things will most likely unfold from here.
The MACD is rising after a recent bullish crossover. However, we are at higher highs on price, and haven't formed a higher high in momentum. That doesn't mean that the rally is dead, it's just an indicator that momentum has been slowing.
The NVT is still in the red and trending sideways. Eventually, it will break, and we will see a massive correction as a result. However, that could still be weeks away. If we look at how long the NVT was red before the fall from 6,000, we can see that it was off and on for about five months. So, that is just something to keep in the back of your mind.
For now, BTC remains in a powerful uptrend, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows. Until that trend is broken, there is no reason to fight it.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-