Bitcoin - Don't expect a bull run so soon.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi friends! Welcome to this analysis of bitcoin .
I've decided to publish this idea after seeing so many people that believe that a BTC bull run is coming. Sorry to break the party, but it is not happening. Yes, even if John McAfee or the CNBC crypto experts told you so.

Lets get to it.
We're looking at a BTC daily log chart coming from the Bitstamp exchange.
Why a log chart instead of a linear chart? First, because you can't draw multi-year support/resistance lines on a linear chart. Second, it reveals that BTC never broke the downtrend resistance (yup, thats correct, everyone told you that it did, but it did not... surprise!).

We can see that BTC has reached a new ATH (20k). Over the weeks, a downtrend resistance (red line) was retested multiple times and breakout was rejected every time.
The bull rally uptrend support (green dotted line) was broken and then retested. As we can see, this uptrend support is now resistance, which marks the beginning of the corrective cycle.
In the previous days, BTC has retested the previous support many times which ultimately resulted in a failed attempt at forming an inversed head and shoulders (no breakout of the neckline occured). Considering that this previous support (now resistance) has been retested over three times, we can say that the bears are in control of the situation.

On the daily MACD , the momentum curve is opening up.
On the weekly MACD , the momentum curve is WIDE open and shows no sign of flattening.
On the daily volume oscillator, momentum is freefalling.
On the weekly and monthly RSI , we can see that BTC is highly overbought which signals the need for a correction.

What to expect?
Everything points toward a big correction.
A multi-year uptrend support retest should happen.

How low will BTC dip? Well... it depends on many factors and we could see 3 different scenarios.
First scenario : BTC has a flash crash to the uptrend support (around 4k$) and then slowly climb back every resistance level until it reaches 20k again.
Second scenario : BTC mostly moves sideways until it reaches the uptrend support (up and down 8k -11.5k that could last 2 months).
Third scenario (should not happen, honestly) : BTC flash crash to multi-year uptrend support (around 4k$) and support breaks, resulting in panic sell, FUD and a very low BTC .

I will discuss the crypto market manipulation that is going on in the near future. I will reveal the secrets that the whales and the exchanges do not want you to know.

***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell***
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