coinomist

Bitcoin USD Historic View on Last Days and Implication

I have put together some of the indicators that I personally find useful in analysing the market.

Data are averaged over Coinbase, Bitstamp and Bitfinex.

Technial:

- KAMA 1.2 from enky.nakamura: This is a Kaufmann moving average, where especially the second deviation line is of importance. I like this indicator as it is close to the market moves but quite robust against noise.
- Fisher Transform is a probabilistic approach to identify trend reversals close to the market
- TD Sequential as an additional buy signal
- RSI as a classical indicator (I tuned to 60,80)

From my non professional view it is still too early to tell where the market will move. Bottom is probably not done yet ( Fisher Transform , TD ). The second deviation line of KAMA is important. It has never been broken on back until 2016. So second STD line will be important to watch to potentially confirm bear market. I will then consider to close my position to cut losses on my gains. No need to rush but time to think about your positions - if not already done. I have indicated some important test levels (for additional up or down trend confirmation).

Further, if you look at early 2016 and 2017 we have the same pattern, but this time much more volume . RSI overbought but Fisher is still quite divergent.

Fundamentals:

Aside from the known facts, Bitcoin will have rolled out several long awaited technological advances in 2018. If not already tried, I suggest to check out LightningCharge or the Lightning Testnet as two examples.

-- no advice on buying and selling, pure academic and educational study --
Comment: So I haven't followed recent buzz around cryptomarket. But from the indicators in the chart and assuming history repeats (2017 only), we should now start moving to about $20k. I only considering 2017 here, because from the Fisher Transform we see a massive shift in the market in 2017, also the volume has steadily increased. From a psychologic point of view I have the freeling that people (many are non-pros) have mentally grown up. Be aware that this is a highly speculative and manipulated market, so be smart and wise, take profits and manage your risks to avoid huge losses.
Comment: Here just the current chart with TD sequential update:

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