After BTCs recent downturn which saw the cryptocurrency fall from $12000 USD all the way to $9900 USD in a matter of days, BTC has managed to find some major support at the $10000 USD level.
This support has been tested numerous times since the 4th of September and has traders questioning whether the bears have lost their grip on BTC.
Since the 4th, BTC has been mainly trading sideways, although it did recently break a downwards resistance line, potentially promoting the idea of a bounce-back up to previous levels.
If we look deeper into this resistance line it shows that it is in fact a descending triangle with a descending pre-trend currently seeing a positive breakout. There is the descending resistance line which has many validation points and then the $10000 USD support level which is acting as the base for this triangle.
A triangle like this is typically bullish. Although currently, BTC appears at risk of re-entering the triangle, which would be a major red flag for a move back down, a potential break below the $10000 USD support level.
This potential re-entry into the triangle is being fueled by the MACD and the QQE MT4. The MACD has seen a negative crossover in the positive area (bearish), while the QQE MT4 has seen a negative crossover around the 65/100 level (also bearish).
BTCs performance over the weekend and days to come will depend on how well BTC obeys these bearish signals.
If BTC can use the downwards resistance from the triangle as support, alongside potentially the $10000 USD support level then this would be a big thumbs up towards a move back up and a potential break of the $10500 USD resistance level.
If BTC heavily embraces the MACD and QQE MT4s bearish sentiment, re-entering the triangle then the likelihood of BTC being able to stay above $10000 USD would be decreased significantly.
This then clearly leaves BTC with two potential directions. Either a rejection of the MACD and QQE MT4 where price is not heavily affected or the opposite. If BTC is not heavily affected then the next level which BTC could be looking at is $10500 then $10700 (+4.3%) USD. If BTC rejects the downwards support from the triangle most likely the S1 PP will be seen, with a likely move towards $9375 USD.
With regard to the recent attempt to move up, BTC is not just seeing resistance at $10500 USD but also resistance at $10375 stemming from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. BTC has attempted to break above this level four times since 05/09/2020 although on each occasion has failed to do so.
When looking at the Elliot waves, the recent impulsive move appears potentially over, with wave five coming to an end when BTC hit $12500 USD. This will then see the beginning of a likely corrective wave, with the move from $12500 USD – $9900 USD being the first part (A) of the corrective wave. We can not be sure of this.
If the Elliot waves suggested in the chart above are correct, then a move towards $10500 USD would appear next in line for BTC.
Overall, the market is bearish, so watch out for the market and always leverage risks vs. rewards.
Good luck!
This support has been tested numerous times since the 4th of September and has traders questioning whether the bears have lost their grip on BTC.
Since the 4th, BTC has been mainly trading sideways, although it did recently break a downwards resistance line, potentially promoting the idea of a bounce-back up to previous levels.
If we look deeper into this resistance line it shows that it is in fact a descending triangle with a descending pre-trend currently seeing a positive breakout. There is the descending resistance line which has many validation points and then the $10000 USD support level which is acting as the base for this triangle.
A triangle like this is typically bullish. Although currently, BTC appears at risk of re-entering the triangle, which would be a major red flag for a move back down, a potential break below the $10000 USD support level.
This potential re-entry into the triangle is being fueled by the MACD and the QQE MT4. The MACD has seen a negative crossover in the positive area (bearish), while the QQE MT4 has seen a negative crossover around the 65/100 level (also bearish).
BTCs performance over the weekend and days to come will depend on how well BTC obeys these bearish signals.
If BTC can use the downwards resistance from the triangle as support, alongside potentially the $10000 USD support level then this would be a big thumbs up towards a move back up and a potential break of the $10500 USD resistance level.
If BTC heavily embraces the MACD and QQE MT4s bearish sentiment, re-entering the triangle then the likelihood of BTC being able to stay above $10000 USD would be decreased significantly.
This then clearly leaves BTC with two potential directions. Either a rejection of the MACD and QQE MT4 where price is not heavily affected or the opposite. If BTC is not heavily affected then the next level which BTC could be looking at is $10500 then $10700 (+4.3%) USD. If BTC rejects the downwards support from the triangle most likely the S1 PP will be seen, with a likely move towards $9375 USD.
With regard to the recent attempt to move up, BTC is not just seeing resistance at $10500 USD but also resistance at $10375 stemming from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. BTC has attempted to break above this level four times since 05/09/2020 although on each occasion has failed to do so.
When looking at the Elliot waves, the recent impulsive move appears potentially over, with wave five coming to an end when BTC hit $12500 USD. This will then see the beginning of a likely corrective wave, with the move from $12500 USD – $9900 USD being the first part (A) of the corrective wave. We can not be sure of this.
If the Elliot waves suggested in the chart above are correct, then a move towards $10500 USD would appear next in line for BTC.
Overall, the market is bearish, so watch out for the market and always leverage risks vs. rewards.
Good luck!