My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: Examined whether or not the descending triangle is still valid since it has move past 75% completion / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 | Short ETH:USD from $201.85 | Orders to add at $194.90 and $187.70
Patterns: Coil (no longer calling for descending triangle due to moving past 75% completion) | Symmetrical triangle from 10/8 to 10/27 has broken down
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,387 looks about as strong as Popeye without his spinach | R: $6,413
BTCUSDSHORTS: Finding support from bottom of symmetrical triangle
Funding Rates: Longs have been paying shorts 0.01% for weeks. What happens when shorts become more in demand than longs?
Short term trend (4 day MA): Today’s candle closed below, Currently being tested for resistance
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Price right on top of MA
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bearish
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: 3d and weekly candles are on pace for record lows
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Last five daily candles: shooting star, hanging man, hanging man, shooting star, hanging man. Doji forming on current candle
Ichimoku Cloud: Testing 12h cloud for resistance. A close inside the cloud would be very significant.
TD’ Sequential: Too choppy to glean anything
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018
Price action: 24h: +/- 0 | 2w: +3.11% | 1m: +0.015%
Bollinger Bands: Haven’t had a daily close above MA since 10/9
Trendline: Even though I no longer consider this a descending triangle, I still view the trendline as extremely important. Small symmetrical triangle brokedown and has held as resistance on the retest
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Stuck at 50
Stochastic: Find it interesting that the daily is starting to diverge following a bearish crossover at 50.
Summary: If it was one month ago I would be rushing out to add to my position due to the symmetrical triangle breaking down, and holding as resistance on a retest, in combination with the thick 12h ichimoku cloud at $6,400.
I would have cancelled my stop order at $194.90 and I would have added at around $200. All of my rules would have been met: original position is in the green, and over 24 hours have passed since the initial entry.
Getting a better price than planned and checking off my best practices would have been more than enough reason for me to justify that move.
Now I am starting to realize the error in that approach. It is a mistake to over expose oneself at the same price and this is a prime example. I prefer to enter in thirds and only add when it’s making a move. Until ETH’ breaks down $195 and BTC’ breaks down $6,375 then we are still stuck in the same trading range. Adding another third of my position while still in the same range is overexposing myself to that price / position.
It doesn’t matter if the original position is in the green if the price remains locked in the same trading range.
My new best practice will be waiting to add to my position until I can move the original stop to breakeven. Let’s use my current ETH’ trade as an example.
If $10,000 desired position size then
Enter $3,333 at $201.85 with $206.60 stop loss.
Set stop orders at $194 and $187 to add $3,333 to the position at each price.
If $194 order triggers then move original stop to $201.85
If $187 triggers then move original stop to $194 and move second stop to breakeven
Trail stops again once/if price breaks down a further 10%
With targets of $100 and $35 that approach should work out very nicely. It will allow me to increase my exposure without taking on more risk. This should also greatly limit myself from becoming handcuffed by overexposing myself to an asset that isn’t moving or is moving against me.
Now that the plan is outlined it is time for the hardest part: waiting
Previous analysis / position: Examined whether or not the descending triangle is still valid since it has move past 75% completion / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 | Short ETH:USD from $201.85 | Orders to add at $194.90 and $187.70
Patterns: Coil (no longer calling for descending triangle due to moving past 75% completion) | Symmetrical triangle from 10/8 to 10/27 has broken down
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,387 looks about as strong as Popeye without his spinach | R: $6,413
BTCUSDSHORTS: Finding support from bottom of symmetrical triangle
Funding Rates: Longs have been paying shorts 0.01% for weeks. What happens when shorts become more in demand than longs?
Short term trend (4 day MA): Today’s candle closed below, Currently being tested for resistance
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Price right on top of MA
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bearish
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: 3d and weekly candles are on pace for record lows
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Last five daily candles: shooting star, hanging man, hanging man, shooting star, hanging man. Doji forming on current candle
Ichimoku Cloud: Testing 12h cloud for resistance. A close inside the cloud would be very significant.
TD’ Sequential: Too choppy to glean anything
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018
Price action: 24h: +/- 0 | 2w: +3.11% | 1m: +0.015%
Bollinger Bands: Haven’t had a daily close above MA since 10/9
Trendline: Even though I no longer consider this a descending triangle, I still view the trendline as extremely important. Small symmetrical triangle brokedown and has held as resistance on the retest
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Stuck at 50
Stochastic: Find it interesting that the daily is starting to diverge following a bearish crossover at 50.
Summary: If it was one month ago I would be rushing out to add to my position due to the symmetrical triangle breaking down, and holding as resistance on a retest, in combination with the thick 12h ichimoku cloud at $6,400.
I would have cancelled my stop order at $194.90 and I would have added at around $200. All of my rules would have been met: original position is in the green, and over 24 hours have passed since the initial entry.
Getting a better price than planned and checking off my best practices would have been more than enough reason for me to justify that move.
Now I am starting to realize the error in that approach. It is a mistake to over expose oneself at the same price and this is a prime example. I prefer to enter in thirds and only add when it’s making a move. Until ETH’ breaks down $195 and BTC’ breaks down $6,375 then we are still stuck in the same trading range. Adding another third of my position while still in the same range is overexposing myself to that price / position.
It doesn’t matter if the original position is in the green if the price remains locked in the same trading range.
My new best practice will be waiting to add to my position until I can move the original stop to breakeven. Let’s use my current ETH’ trade as an example.
If $10,000 desired position size then
Enter $3,333 at $201.85 with $206.60 stop loss.
Set stop orders at $194 and $187 to add $3,333 to the position at each price.
If $194 order triggers then move original stop to $201.85
If $187 triggers then move original stop to $194 and move second stop to breakeven
Trail stops again once/if price breaks down a further 10%
With targets of $100 and $35 that approach should work out very nicely. It will allow me to increase my exposure without taking on more risk. This should also greatly limit myself from becoming handcuffed by overexposing myself to an asset that isn’t moving or is moving against me.
Now that the plan is outlined it is time for the hardest part: waiting
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