I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “If this 4h candle closes above that trendline, which sits at $6,400, then I would expect a retest of the horizontal resistance at $6,445 - $6,464.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 | Short ETH:USD from $201.85
Patterns: Descending triangle might be invalidated - see summary
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,400 | R: $6,450
BTCUSDSHORTS: Finding support from the triangle
Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Todays candle closed above (bullish)
Medium term trend (4 week MA): This week is trying to cross above
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bearish
Overall trend: Bearish. Wick on top of todays candle makes me think we won’t stay above the 4 day MA for long and then wouldn’t expect to close the week bullish either.
Volume: Nothing to speak of
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Last four daily candles: inverted dragonfly / hanging man / hanging man / shooting star
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h and 4h show a lot of support at $6,400. 12h shows a lot of resistance incoming
TD’ Sequential: Not very helpful when we are in a range this tight
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464
Price action: 24h: + / - 0 | 2w: +4.34% | 1m: +2.6%
Bollinger Bands: Today closed below MA but current candle is above it.
Trendline: Top of descending triangle is $6,500 - $6,550 (if valid)
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Stuck at 50 on most time frames
Stochastic: 1h buy signal vs 4h sell
Summary: In yesterday’s post I was keeping my eye on the bear channel that the 1h and 4h charts were fitting into. Shortly after posting the price broke through and then quickly reversed. The wick outside of the trendline with the close back inside is a strong indication of a trap.
Due to this I opened a small short on ETH’ and set stop orders at $194.90 and $187.70 to add to the position. My stop is set at $206.60.
I called the descending triangle on BTC back in early August. The measured move to $3,000 is what led to me originally targeting that area for a bottom. A gap in the visible range volume profile, prior horizontal support and my Bitcoin Bubble Comparisons confirmed that target.
I am currently reading Peter Brandt’s book titled: ‘Diary of a Professional Commodities Trader’ and today I came across some very timely advice. The follow are two direct quotes from Chapter 11:
“The Australian dollar/Canadian dollar (AUD/CAD) is a textbook example of the comedy of errors that can occur when a symmetrical triangle works its way too far toward the apex. Because prices had traveled beyond two-thirds to three-fourths of the way to the apex, I should have ignored this pattern. Instead I got whiplashed by a series of signals. This market spun me like a top”
“The major lesson to be learned is that triangles are not valid when prices work too far toward the apex. This does not mean that I should not attempt the first breakout, but that if the first breakout fails I need to cross the market off my pending trade list”
My struggles over the past month have been well documented. Prior to that I had been in a great groove, up over 1,000% from March 1st - September 13th. Making all of those calls publicly, and in real time in the Bitcoin' Daily Update.
The triangle on Bitcoin’ was 75% complete on September 13th and since then I have gone on my worst losing streak as a full time trader losing about 30% of my bankroll in the process. Seeing a legendary trader such as Peter Brandt get spun around in a similar setup makes me feel better about it all.
It is also a very important lesson. The next time a triangle is more than 75% complete I am going to be extremely careful entering early and/or using stops that are too tight. It isn’t time to abandon the pattern yet since we still haven’t gotten that first breakout.
Trying out the white charts again today for the first time in months. Hopefully coming back to the light side will appease the gods of volatility!
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “If this 4h candle closes above that trendline, which sits at $6,400, then I would expect a retest of the horizontal resistance at $6,445 - $6,464.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 | Short ETH:USD from $201.85
Patterns: Descending triangle might be invalidated - see summary
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,400 | R: $6,450
BTCUSDSHORTS: Finding support from the triangle
Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Todays candle closed above (bullish)
Medium term trend (4 week MA): This week is trying to cross above
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bearish
Overall trend: Bearish. Wick on top of todays candle makes me think we won’t stay above the 4 day MA for long and then wouldn’t expect to close the week bullish either.
Volume: Nothing to speak of
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Last four daily candles: inverted dragonfly / hanging man / hanging man / shooting star
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h and 4h show a lot of support at $6,400. 12h shows a lot of resistance incoming
TD’ Sequential: Not very helpful when we are in a range this tight
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464
Price action: 24h: + / - 0 | 2w: +4.34% | 1m: +2.6%
Bollinger Bands: Today closed below MA but current candle is above it.
Trendline: Top of descending triangle is $6,500 - $6,550 (if valid)
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Stuck at 50 on most time frames
Stochastic: 1h buy signal vs 4h sell
Summary: In yesterday’s post I was keeping my eye on the bear channel that the 1h and 4h charts were fitting into. Shortly after posting the price broke through and then quickly reversed. The wick outside of the trendline with the close back inside is a strong indication of a trap.
Due to this I opened a small short on ETH’ and set stop orders at $194.90 and $187.70 to add to the position. My stop is set at $206.60.
I called the descending triangle on BTC back in early August. The measured move to $3,000 is what led to me originally targeting that area for a bottom. A gap in the visible range volume profile, prior horizontal support and my Bitcoin Bubble Comparisons confirmed that target.
I am currently reading Peter Brandt’s book titled: ‘Diary of a Professional Commodities Trader’ and today I came across some very timely advice. The follow are two direct quotes from Chapter 11:
“The Australian dollar/Canadian dollar (AUD/CAD) is a textbook example of the comedy of errors that can occur when a symmetrical triangle works its way too far toward the apex. Because prices had traveled beyond two-thirds to three-fourths of the way to the apex, I should have ignored this pattern. Instead I got whiplashed by a series of signals. This market spun me like a top”
“The major lesson to be learned is that triangles are not valid when prices work too far toward the apex. This does not mean that I should not attempt the first breakout, but that if the first breakout fails I need to cross the market off my pending trade list”
My struggles over the past month have been well documented. Prior to that I had been in a great groove, up over 1,000% from March 1st - September 13th. Making all of those calls publicly, and in real time in the Bitcoin' Daily Update.
The triangle on Bitcoin’ was 75% complete on September 13th and since then I have gone on my worst losing streak as a full time trader losing about 30% of my bankroll in the process. Seeing a legendary trader such as Peter Brandt get spun around in a similar setup makes me feel better about it all.
It is also a very important lesson. The next time a triangle is more than 75% complete I am going to be extremely careful entering early and/or using stops that are too tight. It isn’t time to abandon the pattern yet since we still haven’t gotten that first breakout.
Trying out the white charts again today for the first time in months. Hopefully coming back to the light side will appease the gods of volatility!
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/