Bitcoin- Did we had the bottom? If not, is pretty close, IMO

I will start by saying that I'm not an eternal optimist when it comes to crypto, in fact, I was very bearish in the past year and I didn't call for a bottom on each support starting with 60k. In this case, though, I think we are pretty close to a bottom if we didn't already have it.

Let me explain.
First of all, Bitcoin is staying in the 20k zone for 3 months now, sometimes slightly under, sometimes slightly above, but you get the point. During this period we had interest rate rises and many other negative news, Bitcoin remained in this zone, with just a drop on the news, indicating that all is in price already.
Second, as was the case when BTC was trading at 60k and a lot of voices called for 100k, now a lot of voices are calling for 10k or whatever, much lower than the price is.
And as we all know, markets turn on extreme optimism and pessimism. As, you know, just 2 days ago we had FOMC with a rate rise and came with "bad" news for the crypto market. No reaction, at least not a notable one.

Technically speaking, we have a clear downtrend and support in the 18k area, also we have an H&S that we can use as a continuation pattern, so we are not yet out of the woods.
However, considering the facts stated above, I see two scenarios:

1. We have a false break of support and reversal above 22k, which would give us a high probability bottom and call for continuation to 25k and even to 30k by year's end.
2. We do not have this false break and the price gets back above 22k and follows the same scenario.

Time will tell, but as I'm concerned, there is a higher probability of 30k by year's end than 10k