BITCOIN - Still On The Highly Manipulated Area BUT...
Hey followers and other TradingView users!
If You read and enjoyed my idea then kill, smash, destroy the "LIKE" button!
To say at first, You all know my key level on the current BTC' chart and this is the multiple times mentioned light-blue area: $3,572 - $3,588.
If the price is above it then we should be on the safer area and if it goes below of it then it will be again on the bearish side.
That's why I have been recently a bit confused. If You want to confirm the area strongness then You should look at those break candles which have guided us below it and above it, those are strong and long candles. In this area, we don't see so many small candles, only rejections and if the price wants to break the strong area then it smashed it with one candle breakthrough!
Now the move which occurred yesterday.
Actually, this was pretty surprising and I have to smash my head because I said in my earlier posts: "..BUT if the 1H candle close is JUST below the super strong area then it would be also a bear trap because I think if we start to go down then this happens quickly and sharply" and actually this has happened. We didn't get a full bearish momentum which should guide us to the lower levels. I admit it that yesterday, I made a mistake but luckily I said that stay away from the market because this area is highly manipulated zone.
Let's look at this from technical perspective.
This move which firstly guides us below the strong area (let's start to call this $3,580), on Sunday, made the lower low. The price found support from the semi-round number $3,500 and from the black dotted trendline which was a short-term counter trendline after the bull run from the bottom at $3,150 to the $4,200.
On January 5 it made a breakout from the counter trendline which will be a bullish sign and currently, we are still above the black dotted trendline with multiple failed attempts to break lower from it.
The yesterday's strong 4H candle made a break above the $3,580 and it managed to break also back above the major counter trendline (from the bottom and the second touch had on 10 January) + the price made a close above the weekend consolidation area $3,650.
Actually, the move upwards above the prementioned levels was very good, if we look at this on SHORT(!!)-term perspective. It looks great but as said we are still on the highly manipulated area and maybe we might see those fake moves again and again. If You remember, then this has happened also between the $6,000-$6,500, we had a lot of fake moves on this area.
The possible next scenarios:
- As said, the yesterday's move looks more bullish side to me and again I have to note, only short-term because we made a lower low! Before we don't have made a new higher high around $4,100 then we can't talk about mid-term perspective.
- IF this move is a real one which guides the price above the major counter trendline and above the $3,850 then we should see a small next leg upwards (on some higher timeframes we have also some bullish candlestick patterns)! I can't promise any targets but the orange resistance line should be doable. The price may take a little throwback time and all throwbacks (movements downwards) are healthy which stays above the $3,850. If we fall lower then $3,850 we are again on the bad area.
Actually, the whole situation is quite unclear and the safest idea would be - look at it by the side and if we start to move away from this highly manipulated area ($3,500-$3,700) then the technical analysis should start to work better.
Please, don't forget to DESTROY THE LIKE BUTTON :)
Thank You for your support, I really appreciate it!
CHEERS!
If You read and enjoyed my idea then kill, smash, destroy the "LIKE" button!
To say at first, You all know my key level on the current BTC' chart and this is the multiple times mentioned light-blue area: $3,572 - $3,588.
If the price is above it then we should be on the safer area and if it goes below of it then it will be again on the bearish side.
That's why I have been recently a bit confused. If You want to confirm the area strongness then You should look at those break candles which have guided us below it and above it, those are strong and long candles. In this area, we don't see so many small candles, only rejections and if the price wants to break the strong area then it smashed it with one candle breakthrough!
Now the move which occurred yesterday.
Actually, this was pretty surprising and I have to smash my head because I said in my earlier posts: "..BUT if the 1H candle close is JUST below the super strong area then it would be also a bear trap because I think if we start to go down then this happens quickly and sharply" and actually this has happened. We didn't get a full bearish momentum which should guide us to the lower levels. I admit it that yesterday, I made a mistake but luckily I said that stay away from the market because this area is highly manipulated zone.
Let's look at this from technical perspective.
This move which firstly guides us below the strong area (let's start to call this $3,580), on Sunday, made the lower low. The price found support from the semi-round number $3,500 and from the black dotted trendline which was a short-term counter trendline after the bull run from the bottom at $3,150 to the $4,200.
The yesterday's strong 4H candle made a break above the $3,580 and it managed to break also back above the major counter trendline (from the bottom and the second touch had on 10 January) + the price made a close above the weekend consolidation area $3,650.
Actually, the move upwards above the prementioned levels was very good, if we look at this on SHORT(!!)-term perspective. It looks great but as said we are still on the highly manipulated area and maybe we might see those fake moves again and again. If You remember, then this has happened also between the $6,000-$6,500, we had a lot of fake moves on this area.
The possible next scenarios:
- As said, the yesterday's move looks more bullish side to me and again I have to note, only short-term because we made a lower low! Before we don't have made a new higher high around $4,100 then we can't talk about mid-term perspective.
- IF this move is a real one which guides the price above the major counter trendline and above the $3,850 then we should see a small next leg upwards (on some higher timeframes we have also some bullish candlestick patterns)! I can't promise any targets but the orange resistance line should be doable. The price may take a little throwback time and all throwbacks (movements downwards) are healthy which stays above the $3,850. If we fall lower then $3,850 we are again on the bad area.
Actually, the whole situation is quite unclear and the safest idea would be - look at it by the side and if we start to move away from this highly manipulated area ($3,500-$3,700) then the technical analysis should start to work better.
Please, don't forget to DESTROY THE LIKE BUTTON :)
Thank You for your support, I really appreciate it!
CHEERS!
Comment:
New BTC analysis, do not forget to support me by hitting the "LIKE" button:
All the best!
Still, there are offers mixed signs because, yes those candle closes are weakened the price level but the strongness is still there, plus we could see that a possible chart pattern Inverted Head & Shoulders has started to form around the current levels.
My recommendation - watch it from the side because the pumps and dumps around this level have been quick and unexpectable!! A candle close below the $3,570 will be a small bearish confirmation!