Bitcoin (BTC) - keep calm and hodl on

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Don't panic - a first subwave has been completed after the larger dip, so a small correction was to be expected.
It is almost over already.

My target is between the 9,300$ - 9,500$ range.

Only if we fall way beyond that, I would start to worry a bit.
Until then, no reason whatsoever for panic.

Comment: A comment for people already familiar with Eilliott wave theory and its rules: on my chart it looks like the 3rd wave is the shortest, which is not allowed in EW theory.

However, it is only the shortest in length, but not in percentage growth - and that is what counts.
Trade closed manually: That's it, the dump is over.

We didn't even get to 9,5k, which just shows how bullish BTC is atm.

Now we're going to blast through 10k in the coming week.
Trade closed: target reached: Alright, so a final little subwave brought us to my target of below 9,5k in the end.

Time to go long now.
Comment: We finally got down to my lowest target of 9,3k.

So how to analyse this?
I see 3 possibilities at the moment.

1.) My initial wave count could still be correct, and this recent drop could have been a massive C wave down. Until we don't break 9,3k, this could still very well be a valid count.

2.) Maybe what I have seen as a complete ABC until now, was just wave A, in which case we would get this:

Here the C wave would be shorter than A, which could indicate further down, however, the top of wave 1 acts as a strong support. That's why I say that it is critical if 9,3k holds.

3.) We completed ABC, started moving up, and got a wave failure.
The reason for that could simply be the lack of volume on a Sunday. There just wasn't sufficient volume for a sustained upwards movement.

I tend to think that the third option is the most likely scenario at the moment, but that is scary, because it would mean we just don't have a clue what happens next. We will have to see what happens in the next days, and re-evaluate.
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Comment: Here's a 4 hour chart, for my view of the bigger picture:

Comment: We just cannot get any real steam, which makes me a bit worried.

Plus, sell volume is exceeding buy volume.
Trade active: I'm forced to open this trade again, altough I closed it already - obviously the correction is not over just yet.

Here is my updated chart, with the most likely wave count for now:

I said previously that 9,3k was the key level to hold.

Thinking about it a bit further: This 5 wave structure which you see on my chart (in white) would form a bigger wave 1. The corrective wave 2 which follows it can retrace a whole lot more than that, actually it can retrace almost the complete gains of wave 1. So it can retrace almost 100%, but not more.

If it retraces under the start point of wave 1, that would mean a wave failure, which could send us back to the bear market again. So let's hope that doesn't happen.

They key level to watch is therefore 8,835$ - we better avoid falling below that at any cost.
Trade closed manually: Current developments forced me to re-evaluate and rethink my wave count, which I believe makes much more sense now:


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