BTC Analysis Oct 24 | 4h bull flag | 1d desc. channel | SPX/DXY
Good Afternoon TV,
Thank you for watching and listening to my analysis! Today I will keep the analysis brief as prices have essentially remained changed. Intra day and intra week price/volume volatility has been the lowest of the year. This is one thing that we've anticipated for months because there's two ways to come out of a bear market: 1. Slow bleeding of prices for a prolonged period of time 2. Fast drop in capitulation for large time frames and a strong reversal. It seems we may be in scenario 1 as we seem to have already had scenario 2 earlier in the year. Due to heavy demand in the 6000 region, we kept bouncing out of this area. However, the bounce clearly wasn't strong enough to overcome the bearish sell pressure as we consistently created lower highs on price and now we're essentially stuck sideways and bleeding out the market. I still lean bearish with a target to $5500 (bottom of OB) as stated for many months now.
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Follow more updates below
Thank you for watching and listening to my analysis! Today I will keep the analysis brief as prices have essentially remained changed. Intra day and intra week price/volume volatility has been the lowest of the year. This is one thing that we've anticipated for months because there's two ways to come out of a bear market: 1. Slow bleeding of prices for a prolonged period of time 2. Fast drop in capitulation for large time frames and a strong reversal. It seems we may be in scenario 1 as we seem to have already had scenario 2 earlier in the year. Due to heavy demand in the 6000 region, we kept bouncing out of this area. However, the bounce clearly wasn't strong enough to overcome the bearish sell pressure as we consistently created lower highs on price and now we're essentially stuck sideways and bleeding out the market. I still lean bearish with a target to $5500 (bottom of OB) as stated for many months now.
Give me comments and thumbs up. Thanks!
Follow more updates below
Comment:
I've spotted a descending parallel channel being created and a rough sketch of a descending triangle being created for the past month. Let's see if price respects these two patterns next few days. For now we're still just floating sideways. And floating sideways in this zone is meaningless. What we do know is the overwhelming macro trend is still bearish. Going to $5500 or $7900+ are the only two options that could make us more bearish or more bullish.
Comment:
We are struggling to climb above the daily bollinger bands. If we were strictly looking at the bollinger bands and trading, being below the middle band is a more bearish sign. Also, the 50 daily MA (pink) is now rejecting price - another bearish sign on a higher time frame.
Comment:
Only the 4h time frame is somewhat bullish as you can see an elongated bull flag
Comment:
Ichi cloud on the daily had its TK bear cross on August 14, 2018 and we haven't had a bullish cross yet. We are under the cloud- bearish. And we're struggling to get over the tenkan (blue) even more bearish. Again, remember that when you feel bullish on smaller time frames and think it's the start of a bull run, just zoom out and check higher time frames.
Comment:
As you can see the last few months show us that price loves to gravitate to this red box. When bulls do not defend prices well and absorb supply, this is what happens. This in questionably a bearish sign and cannot be seen as accumulation unless price at least show strength outside of this box with a strong retest and rejection of this box.
Comment:
Even though S&P500 and DXY are not correlated to BTC, that does not mean they are negatively correlated. We must follow them to get a healthy pulse on what's happening with the flow of money around the macro markets.
Comment:
1d chart: Price is stuck being supported by the 50 daily MA (green) and the middle bollinger band right above us
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