For months, I have been watching the developing similarities between the 2014-15 bull run and subsequent drop, to the current one. Simply from a technical point of view. Not taking into any account the fundamental differences, or lack of, between then and now. This is simply a chart to chart comparison. When you line the 2 up, it is hard to argue the similarities between them. Those similarities have only increased over the last month or 2, especially since that crazy wick up on the tether volatility in mid-october.
More specifically, I have been watching how the price interacts with its 50 week EMA. In 2014-15 and ensuing bear market, it proved to be a pivotal support and resistance level that marked short term trend reversals.
If we compare that price action to the current weekly chart, it is proving to play a similar level of importance and has acted in a similar fashion now as then.
I am further looking at this massive failed wick that is present in both charts. In 2014-15, it marked the last leg down marking the low (ignoring that wick back in early 2014).
From that failed wick that peaked at 475, it took roughly 63 days and 65% until it reached its lows point of 166.5
If we apply that same price range to the current weekly chart, a 65% drop from top of that wick of 7788 would be roughly 2730.
If we apply that same date range to the current weekly chart, 63 days from that wick to a potential low point would be week of december 17th.
Sounds like a stretch and most likely is, but using the 2014-15 chart as a guide to how current price action may behave has proven a successful endeavor for the last 4 to 6 months or so.
Also want to point out, that just because we hit a low point, does not necessarily mean a 'bull market'. If we look at 2014-15, the interval between closing above that 50wk EMA was 399 days. So, while it hit that low in early 2015, we did not see it reach near previous all time highs for another 2 years, until early part of 2017.
So even if we do hit its lowest low in mid december, it does not necessarily mean good times and lambos ahead. Again, using the bottom chart as a guide we may move sideways for quite some time.
More specifically, I have been watching how the price interacts with its 50 week EMA. In 2014-15 and ensuing bear market, it proved to be a pivotal support and resistance level that marked short term trend reversals.
If we compare that price action to the current weekly chart, it is proving to play a similar level of importance and has acted in a similar fashion now as then.
I am further looking at this massive failed wick that is present in both charts. In 2014-15, it marked the last leg down marking the low (ignoring that wick back in early 2014).
From that failed wick that peaked at 475, it took roughly 63 days and 65% until it reached its lows point of 166.5
If we apply that same price range to the current weekly chart, a 65% drop from top of that wick of 7788 would be roughly 2730.
If we apply that same date range to the current weekly chart, 63 days from that wick to a potential low point would be week of december 17th.
Sounds like a stretch and most likely is, but using the 2014-15 chart as a guide to how current price action may behave has proven a successful endeavor for the last 4 to 6 months or so.
Also want to point out, that just because we hit a low point, does not necessarily mean a 'bull market'. If we look at 2014-15, the interval between closing above that 50wk EMA was 399 days. So, while it hit that low in early 2015, we did not see it reach near previous all time highs for another 2 years, until early part of 2017.
So even if we do hit its lowest low in mid december, it does not necessarily mean good times and lambos ahead. Again, using the bottom chart as a guide we may move sideways for quite some time.