A quick overview of historic summer price action. Keeping a bullish bias for now, though I'm not expecting a new ATH during summer months as the October.20 -> April.21 uptrend ran a bit hot.
What would make me OMEGA bullish:
- sudden massive green candle with spike in volume following a great catalyst (news/announcement);
- successfull taproot lock mid-June;
- another breakdown towards the $26k area before BTC attempts to move up to the $50k area, as I would expect huge buying volume to activate bellow $29k. Stablecoin supply at exchanges is at an impressive all-time high right now;
- GBTC premium turning positive again;
- more free money/stimuli directly handed out to citizens in developed nations.
After all the recent FUD I believe only a serious downturn in speculative assets could push Bitcoin into a bear market before Q3/Q4. Paying attention to equity markets and FED policy changes is a good idea right now.
Gold gaining during the recent BTC drop worries me a bit, mainly because it's not a good sign for speculative markets when investors are rotating into a safe haven asset amidst a bull market.
I share the opinion that we're in the final stretch of the 'Everything bubble' but am still not convinced that price inflation of goods/services will somehow shoot BTC to the moon. Businesses and lifelyhoods are still getting rekt and announcing an end to the scamdemic soon will mean government/c.bank assistance will also end - if life becomes more expensive most people will probably not have free cash to invest in speculative assets.
This will change in a hyperinflationary scenario, as I believe Michael Burry is spot on with his prediction, but right now am convinced that central bankers will implement their centralized surveillance coins before they lose control of their fiat currencies.
In any case, keep stacking sats whenever you feel the price is fair, we are still so early.
What would make me OMEGA bullish:
- sudden massive green candle with spike in volume following a great catalyst (news/announcement);
- successfull taproot lock mid-June;
- another breakdown towards the $26k area before BTC attempts to move up to the $50k area, as I would expect huge buying volume to activate bellow $29k. Stablecoin supply at exchanges is at an impressive all-time high right now;
- GBTC premium turning positive again;
- more free money/stimuli directly handed out to citizens in developed nations.
After all the recent FUD I believe only a serious downturn in speculative assets could push Bitcoin into a bear market before Q3/Q4. Paying attention to equity markets and FED policy changes is a good idea right now.
Gold gaining during the recent BTC drop worries me a bit, mainly because it's not a good sign for speculative markets when investors are rotating into a safe haven asset amidst a bull market.
I share the opinion that we're in the final stretch of the 'Everything bubble' but am still not convinced that price inflation of goods/services will somehow shoot BTC to the moon. Businesses and lifelyhoods are still getting rekt and announcing an end to the scamdemic soon will mean government/c.bank assistance will also end - if life becomes more expensive most people will probably not have free cash to invest in speculative assets.
This will change in a hyperinflationary scenario, as I believe Michael Burry is spot on with his prediction, but right now am convinced that central bankers will implement their centralized surveillance coins before they lose control of their fiat currencies.
In any case, keep stacking sats whenever you feel the price is fair, we are still so early.