Rejection Confirmed - Projected Pathway for Continued Correction
Today's action is significant enough to post another update. Now we can zoom in on the 4-hour chart and get an idea of what will be happening next. Take special note that the rejection at the top of the parallel trading upper boundary is still valid on the 1-day chart from my previous idea. The day closed without breaking that line. On the 4-hour chart, it looks like we broke the line. But it will possibly only be a wick on the 1-day chart. Notice how the double green and red bars topped out at the same point, with almost identical wicks. It looks like it turned out to be a quick trade-off, merely a frenzied run that we handed right back at the close of the red 1-hour candle.
Also take note that the overall action was around the upper boundary of the parallel trading channel, and the double green-red trade off action took a pivot just above my Big Red 4.618 fib circle line (based on July 22nd, 2018 to December 13th, 2018 time frame). That's a confirmation that this fib circle remains valid. BTC seems to continue respecting this line.
What's next now that we have broken through the range of the Light Purple 4.236 fib line (based on June 26th, 2019 to July 12th, 2019 time frame)? I think the closest line that will have a gravitational effect would be the next Light Purple 4.618 line. Since we are moving to the right, and the area of that line is in the underneath side of the circle, I think we could crawl up that line, taking us back up to the Big Red 4.618. We still have the upper parallel trading channel boundary, but I think we will pivot on that 4.618 line again, now that we have confirmation that the BTC price action took yet another pivot close to that line today.
The last bit of evidence for predicting the overall direction would be the stochastic. It is rounding out and looks like it has more momentum to the down side, and is now underneath the 80% boundary for the overbought condition. We still don't have any evidence that we have broken out of the overall bearish trend since the $13,500 peak (or there about). Since we just created a 3rd overall lower-high on the macro level, it will take a little more convincing for me to believe that we break to the up-side once we hit these critical fib circle boundaries. Yes, it could happen... anything is possible. If the Bitfinex heavy equipment operators get the signal from the Big Boss, they could crank up the printing machines and start belching out truckloads of Tether and wreck this whole scenario. So don't bet the farm on any of this.
On the next update, we'll talk about the possibilities of low points for the correction if this scenario pans out.
Also take note that the overall action was around the upper boundary of the parallel trading channel, and the double green-red trade off action took a pivot just above my Big Red 4.618 fib circle line (based on July 22nd, 2018 to December 13th, 2018 time frame). That's a confirmation that this fib circle remains valid. BTC seems to continue respecting this line.
What's next now that we have broken through the range of the Light Purple 4.236 fib line (based on June 26th, 2019 to July 12th, 2019 time frame)? I think the closest line that will have a gravitational effect would be the next Light Purple 4.618 line. Since we are moving to the right, and the area of that line is in the underneath side of the circle, I think we could crawl up that line, taking us back up to the Big Red 4.618. We still have the upper parallel trading channel boundary, but I think we will pivot on that 4.618 line again, now that we have confirmation that the BTC price action took yet another pivot close to that line today.
The last bit of evidence for predicting the overall direction would be the stochastic. It is rounding out and looks like it has more momentum to the down side, and is now underneath the 80% boundary for the overbought condition. We still don't have any evidence that we have broken out of the overall bearish trend since the $13,500 peak (or there about). Since we just created a 3rd overall lower-high on the macro level, it will take a little more convincing for me to believe that we break to the up-side once we hit these critical fib circle boundaries. Yes, it could happen... anything is possible. If the Bitfinex heavy equipment operators get the signal from the Big Boss, they could crank up the printing machines and start belching out truckloads of Tether and wreck this whole scenario. So don't bet the farm on any of this.
On the next update, we'll talk about the possibilities of low points for the correction if this scenario pans out.