Is there a valid case for a possible 2800 BTC correction?
Okay guys, there has been a lot of talk from certain prognosticators like Tone Vays about Bitcoin correcting down to 2800, below the 2018 all-time low. Is there even a possible technical scenario that can support such an outlandish correction? Let's take a look at it now.
I dug back into the history of the 1-week candle chart to see if I can even make sense of such a claim, and my goal was to simply find some type of scientific evidence that it could happen, barring a black swan event. Looking back to the previous 2014 high point and adding a pitchfork that takes into account the low point in 2015 and the all-time high point of 2017, we can view a trading channel and ascending center line. I created a set of fib circles that starts at the 2017 high point and the point of capitulation before the BIG DUMP of 2018 to find possible pivot points.
We can see a possible pivot point coming up soon at the 2.618 fib circle, which I believe will be a drop. BTC could break to the up-side, but that would mean that the bear market we previously experienced would have ended in the shortest cycle that we have seen in the history of BTC. What we do know is that the normal market cycles since the inception of Bitcoin have gotten longer each time, never shorter. That's why I think we will see a pivot to the down side once we reach the edge of the 2.618 circle. What also makes me think that we will pivot to the down side is the fact that we would finish the bear cycle in a time frame that would not cut it short for the first time in history. If that happens, we would propagate towards the next possible pivot point, which would be near the 3.618 fib circle boundary. The price could swing up before that 3.618 line, but we have the possibility of another swing to the down side once we reach the line.
The chances of another swing to the down side might be 10% or less, but it's possible. If it swings down again, notice that we are headed towards the center line of the pitchfork. Continuing a trend in the negative direction to that center line would land us right around 2800. Keep in mind, this would consider the negative possibilities at all swing points, which are statistically low, but possible. Even though the chances are slim, it is still possible. But would it mean that all of the predictions about a $1,000,000 Bitcoin are out the window? No, not at all. Even if this happened, the overall trend in history would still be rising. A $1,000,000 Bitcoin would still be on track and possible within the next couple of years, I don't think this would ruin those chances.
It's just something to think about. But when you consider that the great majority of prognosticators change their minds on a daily basis, and CONSTANTLY get their predictions wrong about where we are headed in the short-term, I'm not so trusting of their opinions. Just in the last 2 weeks, we've had COUNTLESS people calling for a $16,000 Bitcoin in the short-term. But as soon as this current correction hit, we don't hear a word about it. None of this short-term predicting makes a hill of beans difference anyway. If someone were to buy right now, at $9,582 which is the price at the time I am writing this, they'll still experience exponential gains over the next few years. It's the traders that I worry about, the ones who jump in the market looking to get rich overnight, and panic-sell the minute BTC experiences a correction after they FOMO in during a run.
I'm no Nostradamus, and I don't claim to know what will happen in the next 5 minutes with any cryptocurrency because this market is viciously wild. And the only financial advice I COULD give anyone is that they should either invest what they are willing to lose in the short term, or be patient and wait it out for the long term. But I'm not a financial advisor. I'm just the guy who first got excited about Bitcoin when it was twenty five cents. Yes, I'm that guy. I wanted to get $100 worth and play around with it for fun. I'm kicking myself to this day. But in ten years, will we be saying the same thing about a $9,582 Bitcoin???
We've got to take it all into perspective!
Please check out my short 2-part video series on my YouTube channel at the links below. They are only 5 minutes each. Like and subscribe, and comment if you will!
Is There a Case for a $2800 Bitcoin Correction - Part 1
Is There a Case for a $2800 Bitcoin Correction - Part 2
I dug back into the history of the 1-week candle chart to see if I can even make sense of such a claim, and my goal was to simply find some type of scientific evidence that it could happen, barring a black swan event. Looking back to the previous 2014 high point and adding a pitchfork that takes into account the low point in 2015 and the all-time high point of 2017, we can view a trading channel and ascending center line. I created a set of fib circles that starts at the 2017 high point and the point of capitulation before the BIG DUMP of 2018 to find possible pivot points.
We can see a possible pivot point coming up soon at the 2.618 fib circle, which I believe will be a drop. BTC could break to the up-side, but that would mean that the bear market we previously experienced would have ended in the shortest cycle that we have seen in the history of BTC. What we do know is that the normal market cycles since the inception of Bitcoin have gotten longer each time, never shorter. That's why I think we will see a pivot to the down side once we reach the edge of the 2.618 circle. What also makes me think that we will pivot to the down side is the fact that we would finish the bear cycle in a time frame that would not cut it short for the first time in history. If that happens, we would propagate towards the next possible pivot point, which would be near the 3.618 fib circle boundary. The price could swing up before that 3.618 line, but we have the possibility of another swing to the down side once we reach the line.
The chances of another swing to the down side might be 10% or less, but it's possible. If it swings down again, notice that we are headed towards the center line of the pitchfork. Continuing a trend in the negative direction to that center line would land us right around 2800. Keep in mind, this would consider the negative possibilities at all swing points, which are statistically low, but possible. Even though the chances are slim, it is still possible. But would it mean that all of the predictions about a $1,000,000 Bitcoin are out the window? No, not at all. Even if this happened, the overall trend in history would still be rising. A $1,000,000 Bitcoin would still be on track and possible within the next couple of years, I don't think this would ruin those chances.
It's just something to think about. But when you consider that the great majority of prognosticators change their minds on a daily basis, and CONSTANTLY get their predictions wrong about where we are headed in the short-term, I'm not so trusting of their opinions. Just in the last 2 weeks, we've had COUNTLESS people calling for a $16,000 Bitcoin in the short-term. But as soon as this current correction hit, we don't hear a word about it. None of this short-term predicting makes a hill of beans difference anyway. If someone were to buy right now, at $9,582 which is the price at the time I am writing this, they'll still experience exponential gains over the next few years. It's the traders that I worry about, the ones who jump in the market looking to get rich overnight, and panic-sell the minute BTC experiences a correction after they FOMO in during a run.
I'm no Nostradamus, and I don't claim to know what will happen in the next 5 minutes with any cryptocurrency because this market is viciously wild. And the only financial advice I COULD give anyone is that they should either invest what they are willing to lose in the short term, or be patient and wait it out for the long term. But I'm not a financial advisor. I'm just the guy who first got excited about Bitcoin when it was twenty five cents. Yes, I'm that guy. I wanted to get $100 worth and play around with it for fun. I'm kicking myself to this day. But in ten years, will we be saying the same thing about a $9,582 Bitcoin???
We've got to take it all into perspective!
Please check out my short 2-part video series on my YouTube channel at the links below. They are only 5 minutes each. Like and subscribe, and comment if you will!
Is There a Case for a $2800 Bitcoin Correction - Part 1
Is There a Case for a $2800 Bitcoin Correction - Part 2