Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this crucial and preliminary important fundamental analysis about bitcoins past cyclical movement, the situation we are trading currently since weeks and months and the events which we can expect in the next months and weeks, as I already pointed out in past analysis bitcoin is still trading in a consolidation phase with no concrete confirmation either up or down. But this wont last forever, we will see a key and historical breakout of this range which will determine the outcome. At the moment both, the bullish and the bearish case are possible as it is a symmetrical triangular shape in that bitcoin is trading right now, I pointed this subject already out in past analysis which I recommend you to see for having a full-depth-overview. Although the bearish case is still in the possible spectrum we have some important bullish factors playing into the situation which I discovered and which are preliminal to look at, therefore we look at the weekly timeframe!
What has changed the last weeks in comparison to the market since the corona-crashdown which was an extraordinary unnatural movement affecting all global markets worldwide is that bitcoin has firstly move above the important 50 and 20-EMA in the structure which I already mentioned is a crucial step into showing one concrete direction in the structure either up or down and now it confirmed above these important EMAs which gives the situation an increasingly bullish shape. This significant EMA-signal marked the confirmed bull-market already two times in the past as you can see in my chart and now the black 20-EMA move above the 50-EMA which can signal the third major confirmation of this fractal. We had a fake breakout to the downside which was preliminary due to corona-virus-fears in the markets but this fake EMA-breakdown recovered to normal and could be the decisive factor in the present situation.
Breakout Possibilities Provided From Bitcoin (Weekly Timeframe):
It is always good to look at the market in terms of probabilities and as we are approaching a massive decision with bitcoin the next times we need to wage the possibilities carefully and don't just think that the market is going to moon or break to the downside on the basis of pure guessing as this happens to increasingly often these times. Therefore what is true is that we have definitely still this strong falling resistance-line above but it is also a fact which shouldn't be ignored that we consolidating several weeks above solid support now and after such times a breakout either to the up or downside will develop a paradigm shift in bitcoin. Counting all these things together this gives a possibility for a breakout of 55 % to the upside and 45 % to the downside as there are more factors playing into the bullish breakout scenario.
Now as the bullish scenario is the higher possible scenario for bitcoin this will be confirmed when we cross the upper falling resistance line to the upside with good volatility, this will also take out the major psychological 10.000 USD mark, remember that this breakout needs to be substantial, when we fall back into the range it can be a fake breakout with a continuum of bearish pressure. When considering the smaller possible bearish scenario we can say a clear break of the 50 and 20-EMA will provide the initial step for the breakdown to the downside and therefore resulting tests of lower levels, either case can be traded after confirmation which is the wisest approach in this market environment. We will see what 2020 can finally bring to us and if there is a chance for further growth or declination in price, in either case, we should keep prepared on the side of carefully waging the possibilities to make the best decision and profit of opportunities.
Alright, this should give you an overview of bitcoins price-mechanisms, support for more markets also you can follow me in social media. At all, have a good weekend and all the best! The motivation to transform opportunity into gold remains the most significant tool for a trader.
Information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Comment
Bitcoin has found some support on the smaller timeframes.
Comment
We see the major american stock-market-index S&P 500 showing high volatility, this can also affect the cryptocurrency-market
Comment
There are some signficicant signs on the smaller timeframes which can affect the higher timeframes
Comment
We are currently trading with lowe voaltiltiy and sideways movement, that means a breakout is in sight.
Comment
ANALYSIS UPDATE: BITCOIN continued with a major breakout above the main trend line which has been the origin of a great bull market expansion.
BITCOIN then followed through with the main growth phase to reach all of the upper target zones within the schedule.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.