ReallyMe

Bitcoin: You just have to claw your way through this disguise...

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Note to self: "You just have to claw your way through this disguise..."
Comment: So my original idea from January 4, 2019 at which many people rolled their eyes and commented "oh no, never ever" was probably right!
Today it looks like this. We will see...
Comment: so far everything fits
Comment: It is worthwhile to check the shape and inclination of the wave combs:
Comment: A major keystone is approaching: MA140 is about to cross MA230.
It is difficult to say with certainty what will happen, no one can see the future.
Pure logically, at least that's the way it's been in the past, and not only with Bitcoin, that after MA140 and MA230 intersect, the price usually pulls back to MA140 for a re-test. Now look how high the BTC price is over MA140 and how high the daily RSI is, way overbought. I am not suggesting anything, just observing and thinking. Use your own your mind to decide and draw your own conclusions. Good luck!
Comment: ...so far everything fits even more
Comment: Update 08-Jun-2019: My current mid-term view:
I think a pullback to the daily MA150 (~$5.7k) for a re-test of support is highly likely then we will have too see.
If the daily MA150 support breaks then we're in for an A-B-C correction and will go lower.
If the daily MA150 holds, though, the uptrend will likely resume.
Comment: It remains exciting. BTC flees to the top, but is there still plenty of room?
I say it's the daily MA38 (which may look like a parabola) that is crucial. It is the border line between doom and glory.
If BTC falls below it it's damned, but if it manages to stay above it's spared.
Just how much longer can this chase go on? I feel like the decision is closing in ;-)
Comment: This beast just keeps on running, that's right. ;-) Nevermind, I am totally relaxed, still. and I don't even think about getting in now. Jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon and buying it now is what unsuspecting beginners do.
If one thing is for sure, it's the fact is that there will be a time when the price will retrace down to the red line for a re-test to make sure the support is still working.
It has always done this in the past (see yelow circles). It will do it again. The question is not if, but when.
Then, when the red line still works as support and it starts going up again, there's a good time to get in, in my opinion.
Numbers signify nothing, it could be at $6k it could be at $9k or it could be at $12, the exact number is not important. Understanding what your plan is and sticking to it is important. YMMV ;-)
Comment: Update 23-06-2019: The upshot of the idea is that after three supercycle motive waves up (2011, 2014, 2017) we might be in for a huge A-B-C correction this time around.
I am not yet saying that I was right, it is too early to judge, but it still looks possible to me:
Comment: So far, price action as predicted. Bitcoin has even dipped twice below $10k.
From my point of view, the big question in the next few days will be whether the price will fall below the daily MA 38.
Comment: I think it will be interesting to see how long the price stays within the descending channel and whether it exits through the top or bottom wall
Comment: It's broken out to the upside it seems
Comment: New development, updated channel -- at the crossroads again -- up or down?
Comment: Price development as predicted. Another 4h candle closes below the important MA230. The downtrend is practically sealed. Should the MA370 ($ 9.5k) be broken soon, Bitcoin is in dire straits.
Comment: Daily closing under MA38 $10,520 (0:00 UTC) this time around would set off big troubles in my opinion. Watch it and take care.
Comment: Update available: The horrible thruth about Bitcoin - Part 2 - runs like clockwork...
Hi !
Very nice setup. Im about to post a trade, can you take a look on my profile and let me know about how it look? Thank you!
Reply
Thanks for this perspective! I think you might be on to something here:)
+1 Reply
ReallyMe metza24
@metza24, you're welcome. we will see :-)
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Thanks for sharing the good TA!

I think when people are looking at different TA, they need to know what do they want.

it's good to wait for market confirmation for a "real bottom". but it's also and more important to be able to react to what the market could offer:
in 2015 before the green crossing up the red, the btcusd price made 2x.
this time from recent bottom(it doesnt matter if further bottom is yet to come or not. btcusd trended up from 3k till now 8k. this is 2-3x profit.

I was much cautious about the bottom before. but then after seeing the market is very happening everytime when btcusd is gving positive movement. the altcoins market have good fruition and some very surprising:
in 2018 April, btcusd gave similr price target as what's happening now, and ontusd gave 4x-5x to the market. trxusd gave about 1x and many other altcoins.
and in early 2018, zilusd gave good profit too.

dring this 2019 May, matic network repeated what ontusd had in 2018. it gave 5x solid profit. and many other altcoins gave 1x.

To sum up,
i think it's important to be critical about what's happening in the market. to consider the possibility of both if btcusd is going up or down.

but it's also very crucial to have ur own strategy, either my using MA MTF, EW , or pattern trading. if the market is favor ur direction from ur strategy, do what u need to do.
coz trading is all about setup, RR ratio, target, stop loss.

build ur own strategy and safe trading.
Reply
ReallyMe miaomiao18
@miaomiao18, Thanks. I totally agree. Stick to your strategy. Never hesitate to execute stop losses when the market start moving against you. Cut your losses early, let the winners run as long as possible. Good luck out there!
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Will the red catch the green? Also possible, right?
In 2015 red never reacted to anything, just before the last dip... that is, why actually 142 and 230 D MA? (some 20wMA and 33wMA?)
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ReallyMe petrreo
@petrreo, I think it will, but at the moment I think that this time it won't automatically mean that we will have a breakout to the upside and a bull run to a new all-time high, because in 2015 the intersection of red and green marked the start of Wave 5. This time the intersection could only mark the start of Wave B.
+2 Reply
petrreo ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, I wonder, I wonder, whether EWT counting of waves rally is something now, we can really place our decisions upon. What I like about EWT is how he it describes typical psychology of mass of humans competing in one against onother to fool each onother into getting the best price. There are some typical expectations and they tend to produce waves with similarities which could be counted. In the end, though, it is still just "typical" and typicality of that behavior en mass.

The waves produced, can be atypical or fail as well. In the end it is the psychology of the mass, the market (while looking at the same chart like You do) at current moment which counts. That said, I tend to not like the image, that the bull market is already in. It kinda look too easy to be true. At the same time, I don't believe (much) in the deeper new bottom still before us (but I am open to it).
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ReallyMe petrreo
@petrreo, Yes. Perhaps. The thing is, the market behavior is actually random. The Elliott Wave Theory works sometimes, but it fails, too.
The greatest wisdom I've heard in this context, and I really mean it, is “You can't tell till you bet.”
+3 Reply
petrreo ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, We will do our bets :-) .... as for me, I will not believe in C wave much, I will adjust and prepare to it, if it comes :-)
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