The big question for all those comparing the current bear market to the 2015 bear market is: Where are we? Point #1 or #2? Will we reject the 50 weekly EMA? Or break it?
My belief is that we are are at point nr. 2 already and will break the 50 weekly EMA upon what can essentially be called the first attempt.
Why?
A. Having the same happen as in 2015 would simply be *far* too obvious. The current (2019) 50 EMA resistance is obviously a point where a lot of short positions are newly entered by retail traders because a retrace seems so obvious based on what happened in the previous bear market. However that inherently means that the big guys can make more money by having things go up. Especially so, because those shorts provide the fuel for more than a small rally (possibly even bigger than what we saw in 2015 following the EMA break).
B. Secondly, RSI and the current fractal better resemble situation #2. RSI is high and stable and our fractal is gradually moving up, like in situation #2. RSI is a strength indicator not without reason. Many here seem to believe that high RSI is a bad sign ("because high RSI must come down at some point"), however they forget that high RSI historically precedes big rallies and that corrections and RSI declines only come later.
C. This time is different. In July 2015 (point #1) many considered the option of Bitcoin never seeing a new all-time high. There was enough fear to feed a big correction as the one that happened back then, because the prospect of an additional bull market was overall uncertain. This time (in 2019) that doesn't seem to be the case. Even the majority of bears here on TradingView that are calling for a retrace do seem to believe that a big rally will follow and that within the next few years we will see new all-time-highs. Everyone that calls for lower prices seems to be waiting for lower prices to get in themselves. No-one wants to be short when an ETF gets approved and big institutional money flows in (which eventually will happen). FOMO is bigger than FEAR.
My belief is that we are are at point nr. 2 already and will break the 50 weekly EMA upon what can essentially be called the first attempt.
Why?
A. Having the same happen as in 2015 would simply be *far* too obvious. The current (2019) 50 EMA resistance is obviously a point where a lot of short positions are newly entered by retail traders because a retrace seems so obvious based on what happened in the previous bear market. However that inherently means that the big guys can make more money by having things go up. Especially so, because those shorts provide the fuel for more than a small rally (possibly even bigger than what we saw in 2015 following the EMA break).
B. Secondly, RSI and the current fractal better resemble situation #2. RSI is high and stable and our fractal is gradually moving up, like in situation #2. RSI is a strength indicator not without reason. Many here seem to believe that high RSI is a bad sign ("because high RSI must come down at some point"), however they forget that high RSI historically precedes big rallies and that corrections and RSI declines only come later.
C. This time is different. In July 2015 (point #1) many considered the option of Bitcoin never seeing a new all-time high. There was enough fear to feed a big correction as the one that happened back then, because the prospect of an additional bull market was overall uncertain. This time (in 2019) that doesn't seem to be the case. Even the majority of bears here on TradingView that are calling for a retrace do seem to believe that a big rally will follow and that within the next few years we will see new all-time-highs. Everyone that calls for lower prices seems to be waiting for lower prices to get in themselves. No-one wants to be short when an ETF gets approved and big institutional money flows in (which eventually will happen). FOMO is bigger than FEAR.