1) The 6k support that Bitcoin had stood on for months was broken a week ago.
2) As stated in my last idea, the last few times BTC broke below the 6k support, it didn't stay there for a very long time. The first 6k break only happened on a couple exchanges like GDAX, and BTC was only under it for a hour or so. Later breaks were on much lower volume and were near the end of a downtrend with bullish divergence on indicators. This is the longest period of time we've spent below 6k this year, as previous breaks only had wicks below 6k on the daily or the next candle closed above 6k.
3) The bulls didn't even manage a retest of the former 6k support to confirm it as new resistance.
4) Today, the diagonal "support" formed from the Feb low and the Jun low was broken - the last stand of the bulls.
5) The break of the diagonal diagonal "support" invalidates the "falling wedge" theory some bulls were pushing.
6) The bearish descending triangle breakdown idea is now what the crowd will be following, likely causing the price to dip further in a self-fulfilling prophecy.
7) We didn't spend much time in the 5k area before entering the 4k range.
8) The volume of the this dump was higher than the volume of the first dump on the three exchanges I checked (BitMEX, Bitfinex, Coinbase). Volume confirms price trends.
9) If you believe in Elliott Wave Theory, the current dump is the 3rd wave of the current downtrend. The 3rd wave is when the trend is confirmed beyond any doubt.
10) When price breaks below support or resistance, volatility drastically increases as traders have no price points that they would expect to provide support. This can be seen by the huge high volume dumps after both supports were broken.
11) There isn't any support below us besides the psychological round number milestones of 4k, 3k, etc and some arbitrary diagonal trendlines from years ago.
12) Funding rate is still in favor of bears on BitMEX.
13) Bulls are very weak right now. Bullish events like the FUD that triggered the early September fall being proven false and the entry of Bakkt/Fidelity into the crypto scene eliciting no positive response in the price from bulls revealed their weakness and lack of ability to pump the price even with the news on their side.
2) As stated in my last idea, the last few times BTC broke below the 6k support, it didn't stay there for a very long time. The first 6k break only happened on a couple exchanges like GDAX, and BTC was only under it for a hour or so. Later breaks were on much lower volume and were near the end of a downtrend with bullish divergence on indicators. This is the longest period of time we've spent below 6k this year, as previous breaks only had wicks below 6k on the daily or the next candle closed above 6k.
3) The bulls didn't even manage a retest of the former 6k support to confirm it as new resistance.
4) Today, the diagonal "support" formed from the Feb low and the Jun low was broken - the last stand of the bulls.
5) The break of the diagonal diagonal "support" invalidates the "falling wedge" theory some bulls were pushing.
6) The bearish descending triangle breakdown idea is now what the crowd will be following, likely causing the price to dip further in a self-fulfilling prophecy.
7) We didn't spend much time in the 5k area before entering the 4k range.
8) The volume of the this dump was higher than the volume of the first dump on the three exchanges I checked (BitMEX, Bitfinex, Coinbase). Volume confirms price trends.
9) If you believe in Elliott Wave Theory, the current dump is the 3rd wave of the current downtrend. The 3rd wave is when the trend is confirmed beyond any doubt.
10) When price breaks below support or resistance, volatility drastically increases as traders have no price points that they would expect to provide support. This can be seen by the huge high volume dumps after both supports were broken.
11) There isn't any support below us besides the psychological round number milestones of 4k, 3k, etc and some arbitrary diagonal trendlines from years ago.
12) Funding rate is still in favor of bears on BitMEX.
13) Bulls are very weak right now. Bullish events like the FUD that triggered the early September fall being proven false and the entry of Bakkt/Fidelity into the crypto scene eliciting no positive response in the price from bulls revealed their weakness and lack of ability to pump the price even with the news on their side.
Comment:
We've found temporary support at ~4.2-4.4k, which was about the 1.61 fib extension of the first wave down. Some notable bears on BitMEX have also closed part of their position.