BTCUSD curve prediction - made on Feb 6 -BG from investingscope
This a private chart made on Feb 6, now make it go public.
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did we finish the double top and bottom?
now we broke out from the pink resistance,
will see if it goes up to break out from the black/grey channel upper resistance line
or breakdown from the pink
or what.
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did we finish the double top and bottom?
now we broke out from the pink resistance,
will see if it goes up to break out from the black/grey channel upper resistance line
or breakdown from the pink
or what.
Trade active:
interesting. pink and grey lines plays well as resistance and support.
let's see it will go up or down from this zone.
let's see it will go up or down from this zone.
Comment:
if it retrace more from here, then considering Fib level @ 1.272/1.414/1.618 as target:
Comment:
if 3450usd where the grey line resistance is not broken, and pink support line is broken, then target is around 2k. history repeats:
Comment:
weekly chart
when in Bull market
BTCUSD always hold up RSI 53 @ correction and WMA18!
when in Bull market
BTCUSD always hold up RSI 53 @ correction and WMA18!
Comment:
1. the bottom of the bottom was formed after the RSI lower low, while stoch rsi higher low
2. after the channel bottom holds well after 3 tests.
going up from the bottom then breaks out from the RSI 53,WMA30, WMA18
2. after the channel bottom holds well after 3 tests.
going up from the bottom then breaks out from the RSI 53,WMA30, WMA18
Comment:
in the channel above, both bottoms been hold well on RSI 40
Comment:
3 times bottom of the channel, first 2 times it's been holding below RSI 40.
after it breakout to try to touch channel mid line. then it comes down again to RSI40, been holding well. final bottom confirmed.
from there, it started going up and it breakout from WRSI 53 and WMA30 WMA18. reached RSI top line, meanwhile, break out from channel midline.
when it comes down to test WRSI 53 again, that's also supported by WMA18!
BTCUSD Weekly chart likes RSI 53. after the bull run started again from there in 2015-2016. WRSI 53 had always been performed at support, for 3-4 times, only failed in 2018 bear market.
after it breakout to try to touch channel mid line. then it comes down again to RSI40, been holding well. final bottom confirmed.
from there, it started going up and it breakout from WRSI 53 and WMA30 WMA18. reached RSI top line, meanwhile, break out from channel midline.
when it comes down to test WRSI 53 again, that's also supported by WMA18!
BTCUSD Weekly chart likes RSI 53. after the bull run started again from there in 2015-2016. WRSI 53 had always been performed at support, for 3-4 times, only failed in 2018 bear market.
Comment:
if you ask me where are we now when comparing to the chart above.
i think we are possibly at either of the black circles on the charts blow.
how to define which one:
on BTCUSD weekly chart,
1) if RSI and Stoch RSI comes down to the bottom, with RSI lower low, Stoch RSI higher low. Then we are on the left black circle price position.
- it means we could expect BTCUSD price to drop down to reach its 1.272 at price around 2000 usd.
2) if RSI and Stoch RSI comes down NOT to the bottom. Then we are likely to be on the right black circle price position.
- it means we could expect BTCUSD price to test the previous low @ around 3200usd. phase 1- if it then comes up to test previous high @ around 4000usd.
phase 2- then it might come down to test around 3200usd again,
phase 3- if it doesn't break down, then we are likely to go bull from there.
on phase 3, PAY ATTENTION TO THE RSI relations to RSI 53 and RSI 40! to double check and confirm.
i think we are possibly at either of the black circles on the charts blow.
how to define which one:
on BTCUSD weekly chart,
1) if RSI and Stoch RSI comes down to the bottom, with RSI lower low, Stoch RSI higher low. Then we are on the left black circle price position.
- it means we could expect BTCUSD price to drop down to reach its 1.272 at price around 2000 usd.
2) if RSI and Stoch RSI comes down NOT to the bottom. Then we are likely to be on the right black circle price position.
- it means we could expect BTCUSD price to test the previous low @ around 3200usd. phase 1- if it then comes up to test previous high @ around 4000usd.
phase 2- then it might come down to test around 3200usd again,
phase 3- if it doesn't break down, then we are likely to go bull from there.
on phase 3, PAY ATTENTION TO THE RSI relations to RSI 53 and RSI 40! to double check and confirm.
Comment:
long words short:
if btcusd breakdown from the channel, then short to 3400usd
if btcusd breakout from the upper resistant line, long to 4400(length from the triangle target), even to 5100(length from the head&shoulder fromed).
No matter it's long or short, the target might reach around mid April 2019.
and this 5100 price is to the dip point from 2017 Oct 18:
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from the previous movement of btcusd, it turned out that
- when btcusd remain above 3400usd, altcoin btc price goes with its own flow.
- when btcusd drop below 3400usd, altcoin btc price panic drop along with btcusd.
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so, one scenario ilkely to happen:
- altcoin follows its own pattern, till mid april.
- by then depends on how btcusd is like, altcoin would either follow its own path, or panic drop along with btcusd(f btcusd have dramatic drop)
if btcusd breakout from the upper resistant line, long to 4400(length from the triangle target), even to 5100(length from the head&shoulder fromed).
No matter it's long or short, the target might reach around mid April 2019.
and this 5100 price is to the dip point from 2017 Oct 18:
--
from the previous movement of btcusd, it turned out that
- when btcusd remain above 3400usd, altcoin btc price goes with its own flow.
- when btcusd drop below 3400usd, altcoin btc price panic drop along with btcusd.
--
so, one scenario ilkely to happen:
- altcoin follows its own pattern, till mid april.
- by then depends on how btcusd is like, altcoin would either follow its own path, or panic drop along with btcusd(f btcusd have dramatic drop)
Comment:
i think it will come down to around 3800 then go up to 4153usd
if it breaks out from 4153, then next target is around 4800usd
if it breaks down from 3800usd, then lower to 3236usd
i think it will come down to around 3800 then go up to 4153usd
if it breaks out from 4153, then next target is around 4800usd
if it breaks down from 3800usd, then lower to 3236usd
Comment:
Comment:
target done for now.
need to see where does it close for weekly
need to see where does it close for weekly
Comment:
add-on text description for original idea post above:
let's check the wave counting here:
big corrective wave from ATH, formed big wave AB(0.382)C(targeting 1.272)
then in the big wave B, it happens another sub big corrective ABC in zigzag 3-3-5 form. that's what u see the black wave abc. B nearby "capitulation".
in this sub big wave C(5s) it's going with fib trend target, with wave 3 reached 1.618(3000/3200usd area).
from there, i made 2 scenarios:
scenario 1- in this wave 12345(fib trend wave 3 @ 1.618, wave 5 @ 2), having wave 4 reaches fib trend level 1(around 5200/5300 area, it reached when recent hype). then come down to complete wave 5@ fib trend level 2 - price @ 2500usd.
scenario 2 - in this wave 12345(fib trend wave 3 @ 1.618), wave 4 would be an big retracement(playing zigzag ABC wave) retracing @ 0.618 length of wave 3. in this way, final wave 5 will not able to reach the previous wave 3 price, instead, it will settle around wave 12345 fib trend level 1.272(4200usd)
so, in this wave 4(A B@0.5 C@0.618). like shown in the pic, wave A(5200/5300, reached recent hype), wave B(4200/4300), wave C(5900usd), final wave 5 targeting around 4200/4300usd
In the future when i post something in public, i will write something clear on the description, instead of only putting marks on the chart.
let's check the wave counting here:
big corrective wave from ATH, formed big wave AB(0.382)C(targeting 1.272)
then in the big wave B, it happens another sub big corrective ABC in zigzag 3-3-5 form. that's what u see the black wave abc. B nearby "capitulation".
in this sub big wave C(5s) it's going with fib trend target, with wave 3 reached 1.618(3000/3200usd area).
from there, i made 2 scenarios:
scenario 1- in this wave 12345(fib trend wave 3 @ 1.618, wave 5 @ 2), having wave 4 reaches fib trend level 1(around 5200/5300 area, it reached when recent hype). then come down to complete wave 5@ fib trend level 2 - price @ 2500usd.
scenario 2 - in this wave 12345(fib trend wave 3 @ 1.618), wave 4 would be an big retracement(playing zigzag ABC wave) retracing @ 0.618 length of wave 3. in this way, final wave 5 will not able to reach the previous wave 3 price, instead, it will settle around wave 12345 fib trend level 1.272(4200usd)
so, in this wave 4(A B@0.5 C@0.618). like shown in the pic, wave A(5200/5300, reached recent hype), wave B(4200/4300), wave C(5900usd), final wave 5 targeting around 4200/4300usd
In the future when i post something in public, i will write something clear on the description, instead of only putting marks on the chart.
Comment:
if the wave 5 comes to 2500usd price area, it'd gonna match the big wave abc counting with wave c @ 1.272(2300/2400usd)
that's if it happens like that.
when u look at the chart and possibility, need to see both possible scenarios and be rational with ur movement. if u trade, always put stop loss.
that's if it happens like that.
when u look at the chart and possibility, need to see both possible scenarios and be rational with ur movement. if u trade, always put stop loss.
Trade active:
update on 1 scenario:
1. why i think we are repeating 2014end -2015 price movement
2. if so, how to trade
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last time we looked a the price movement of 2013 bottom without channel base/consolidation and bull from there. also 2014 end -2015 with good base/consolidation. and both scenario, we had RSI look and analysis like so:
we can see that in end of 2014, when WRSI(weekly RSI) hold on 36, broke out from 43 and shot above 53. price movement went from channel base bottom line to boost up around 58% in 11 bars 77 days. then followed with WRSI fall back and hold on to WRSI 43, price fell 35% in 7 bars 49 days. and then bull market started from there.
after btcusd price hit recent high around 5300usd earlier, like we know from wRSI prediction. then it came to the question - where do we expect WRSI to fall to?
let's have a bigger picture look along with Stoch RSI:
from both WRSI and Stoch RSI, it's likely that we are going with 2014 end -2015 movement. so WRSI is expected to retrace to around 43 level, Stoch RSI down to bottom.
and let's get a clear view on the MA and channel/base play out. going back to test WMA200, went bit lower than that, but closed above/on WMA200:
so if we repeat 2014end -2015 movement, then here's the expected movement and price target:
WRSI goes back to 43 and hold on from there, price going down to retest WMA200(around 3500usd) and we will see what happens around 4300usd.
the updated analysis above is purely based on the RSI movement and comparison to the previous 2 bottoms(in 2013 and in 2014/15), not by elliott wave theory or counting.
1. why i think we are repeating 2014end -2015 price movement
2. if so, how to trade
--
last time we looked a the price movement of 2013 bottom without channel base/consolidation and bull from there. also 2014 end -2015 with good base/consolidation. and both scenario, we had RSI look and analysis like so:
we can see that in end of 2014, when WRSI(weekly RSI) hold on 36, broke out from 43 and shot above 53. price movement went from channel base bottom line to boost up around 58% in 11 bars 77 days. then followed with WRSI fall back and hold on to WRSI 43, price fell 35% in 7 bars 49 days. and then bull market started from there.
after btcusd price hit recent high around 5300usd earlier, like we know from wRSI prediction. then it came to the question - where do we expect WRSI to fall to?
let's have a bigger picture look along with Stoch RSI:
from both WRSI and Stoch RSI, it's likely that we are going with 2014 end -2015 movement. so WRSI is expected to retrace to around 43 level, Stoch RSI down to bottom.
and let's get a clear view on the MA and channel/base play out. going back to test WMA200, went bit lower than that, but closed above/on WMA200:
so if we repeat 2014end -2015 movement, then here's the expected movement and price target:
the updated analysis above is purely based on the RSI movement and comparison to the previous 2 bottoms(in 2013 and in 2014/15), not by elliott wave theory or counting.
Comment:
based on the 2014/15 fell back to test WMA200, it took 35% down on price 7 bars 49 days. similarly from our recent high, we expect the fall back to retest WMA200 would be around May 20.
Comment:
watch closely to the WRSI movement, to see where it will retrace back to.
Comment:
also need to look closely on what happens to when price goes around 4300usd, coz that’s also likely price to start bull
Comment:
if btcusd plays bull movement to finsih big elliott wave. then wave 4 is expected around 4300usd. and wave 5 to be 6000usd, expected around July 15.
if btcusd plays bull movement to finsih big elliott wave. then wave 4 is expected around 4300usd. and wave 5 to be 6000usd, expected around July 15.
