Obviously, I don't have a crystal ball, however, just for fun I have estimated what the timing of this current market cycle may look like. I haven't made any predictions on the chart as far as the peak price or the price of the next bottom. Although, if the trend of diminishing returns continues I would expect a peak between $80k and $90k. If that trend is broken a peak between $100k and $200k is likely.
What I have done on this chart is laid out the dates when each event may occur. I estimated the dates based off of the average elapsed times between the events from the last two market cycles. In doing this, I am making a big assumption that this market cycle will follow the timing of the last two cycles. So far this assumption appears to be correct. The estimated elapsed time from the bear market bottom on November 21st 2022 to the upcoming halving on April 18th will be 515 days. That is very close to the elapsed times from the last two cycles (542 and 513 days).
But, that doesn't mean that the elapsed times between the remaining events will closely match the past cycles. One recent event that could very possibly alter Bitcoins market cycle is the approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs on January 10th 2024. Bitcoin futures ETFs have been around for seveal years but they differ from a spot ETF. A Bitcoin futures ETF holds Bitcoin futures contracts to get exposure to the price of Bitcoin. A Bitcoin spot ETF buys actual Bitcoin which is then held by a custodian in a secure digital wallet.
As we all know the amount of available Bitcoin is finite, and with the upcoming halving each block will produce half as much (3.125 per block mined). The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs will dramatically widen access to the world’s largest cryptocurrency for not only institutional investors but also retail investors. This additional demand for Bitcoin could very well exacerbate the already tight market supply driving up the price faster than previous cycles.
Only time will tell how this current market cycle will play out. It will be interesting to use these estimated event dates to gauge how this cycle compares to the previous cycles. If we see Bitcoin hit a new all-time high well before the estimated date it could mean that we could see a left translated cycle. However, it could also mean that the additional demand from the ETFs will drive the price of BTC to levels beyond what most analysts believe is possible.
What I have done on this chart is laid out the dates when each event may occur. I estimated the dates based off of the average elapsed times between the events from the last two market cycles. In doing this, I am making a big assumption that this market cycle will follow the timing of the last two cycles. So far this assumption appears to be correct. The estimated elapsed time from the bear market bottom on November 21st 2022 to the upcoming halving on April 18th will be 515 days. That is very close to the elapsed times from the last two cycles (542 and 513 days).
But, that doesn't mean that the elapsed times between the remaining events will closely match the past cycles. One recent event that could very possibly alter Bitcoins market cycle is the approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs on January 10th 2024. Bitcoin futures ETFs have been around for seveal years but they differ from a spot ETF. A Bitcoin futures ETF holds Bitcoin futures contracts to get exposure to the price of Bitcoin. A Bitcoin spot ETF buys actual Bitcoin which is then held by a custodian in a secure digital wallet.
As we all know the amount of available Bitcoin is finite, and with the upcoming halving each block will produce half as much (3.125 per block mined). The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs will dramatically widen access to the world’s largest cryptocurrency for not only institutional investors but also retail investors. This additional demand for Bitcoin could very well exacerbate the already tight market supply driving up the price faster than previous cycles.
Only time will tell how this current market cycle will play out. It will be interesting to use these estimated event dates to gauge how this cycle compares to the previous cycles. If we see Bitcoin hit a new all-time high well before the estimated date it could mean that we could see a left translated cycle. However, it could also mean that the additional demand from the ETFs will drive the price of BTC to levels beyond what most analysts believe is possible.