ZenAndTheArtOfTrading

24/2/2018 Bitcoin Analysis

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is my private Bitcoin market analysis that I usually only share with my trading friends. I figured I'd publish it publicly this time since we are at such an important juncture this week. I know there's a lot going on with this chart, but it's all fairly simple and self-explanatory. I often share this with friends who are learning technical analysis which is why I have so many labels on there but hopefully it helps explain my thought process.

In short, my sentiment is very bullish at the moment for the medium-long term but I obviously see the potential for more trouble in the short term (I know - real insightful.)

The "Bishop Signal" is a technical indicator I picked up from an oldschool trader named Courtney Smith. When the ADX line gets above 40 and then turns down, that generally signals the end of a Daily chart trend with ~80% accuracy in most markets. In my experience we usually either enter a period of prolonged consolidation or a full-on trend-reversal whenever this indicator gives this particular signal. In this case I'm anticipating an end of the bear cycle and the potential beginnings of the next bull run due to many converging factors both technical and fundamental.

Volume is increasing which is a positive sign given that price momentum is towards the upside at the moment. During the sell-off volume was actually quite low, indicating to me that the panic-sell was mostly fueled by amateur retail investors and not so much the whales/smart money. (More than likely they sold at the top and are buying back this dip like they usually do).

RSI is looking healthy and not in any danger zones so we still have plenty of potential for healthy momentum to come into this market right now which is very interesting considering where price is sitting at the moment (right at several key resistance zones). Given the growing positive sentiment around Bitcoin it's possible the negative crypto news cycle and bear market could be coming to a long-awaited end (at least for the short-medium term).

Will this give Bitcoin enough momentum to crack through that bearish trend-line and the moving averages that are keeping this market subdued below 11-12k? We'll have to wait and see. Technically we are still in a fairly strong bear market phase of this correction until we can break above resistance at 12k, so if you are attempting to go long at these prices then make sure you wait for confirmation of a break and close (and maybe even retest) above 12k. If we cannot crack that resistance within the next week then we could see a momentous push right back down to 6k (though I do not expect us to get that low this time).

Good luck out there, should be another great year for the crypto markets if the fundamentals continue unfolding the way they have been. Be smart with the coins you pick to invest in, manage your risk and you'll do extremely well in this next phase (if and when it comes - anything can happen!)

Peace -
MJS.
Comment: Sellers are struggling to push the price down so far. It can still go either way from here and it is the weekend which is generally a quiet time, but I take that as a bullish sign. I expected a lot more selling pressure than this after that rejection.
Comment: Interesting action on the 1hr. I'm not convinced that the 9426 level will hold yet as I give precedence to the higher timeframes and they still look precarious, but in a fast-moving market we often see Bitcoin find support on the hourly timeframe so this should be an interesting price to watch.

Comment: This is what I'm expecting over the next 24 hrs. We'll see how that zone holds if price does test it. If that zone does not hold then we will probably see some heavy capitulation.

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Comment: Interesting price action after the bounce from our first zone of 1hr support. This market may be about to pick up speed again, bullish momentum is gathering like a spring load. If we can crack and stay above those red resistance lines then we will most likely see a major push to the upside, potentially to 12-14k.

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We have broken the first line of resistance on fairly impressive volume. I'm expecting a break-out of the larger bearish trend-line by the end of the week.
Comment: Looking good so far. Suspiciously so. Beware of a false breakout at 11500. I won't be convinced of market bull strength unless we can hold above there for a few days.
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