1) We have completed wave 3 up to 11.8k and are now the corrective wave 4. This invalidates if the wave 1 high of 9053 is breached.
2) We have completed the 5 waves and are now in a corrective structure which becomes more and more complex as the days go by.
The chart shows scenario (2) and my conviction is that we are in this structure and that we are completing a contracting triangle as part of the recent (b) leg to move into the (c) leg of the broader WXY structure.
Under this scenario there are three facets that lead me to think we will bounce at 8.2k and complete this Y (c) leg.
- 0.618 of the recent bull from 6k
- from the W leg of this recent consolidation pattern
- Areas of support on the bear wave down and the recent 5 wave bull up
I have just sold off some of the coins I have purchased at 8.5k. The target for this is 8.2k and the stop will be very tight at 9860. Exceeding 9860 invalidates the current structure. The risk reward is high at a 10:1 ratio. However the probability of activating my stop loss is also high. This is a high risk, high reward trade. This fits MY trading plan and my overall short term conviction.
Sold at 9686
Stop loss 9860
a) Into another X and then down, creating a triple zig zag
b) Into the next 5 wave impulse up