BTCUSD
Here we see that BTC has been in a long-term downtrend since June of 2019's high. More recently, at the beginning of this year it appeared as though we could be breaking out of this bearish trend, only to see a major correction to the downside spurred by macroeconomic events. Since the spike downward the price action of BTC over the past 2 weeks has lead to the formation of an Ascending Wedge. This is characterized by candles closing with higher highs, lower lows, and decreasing volume. It is also considered to be "more" valid if the fib retracement levels remain below the .5 line, which we can see, they still are.
As supply gives out and bullish exhaustion takes over, we can expect to see a continuation of the long term downtrend.
Coupling this with the macro environment we are all aware of, and I don't see BTC bucking this trend.
Of course, it is possible that BTC is strengthened by these factors (as it was designed to be) and we see BTC enter a new bull phase. The problems I have with this scenario are that;
1: People aren't buying any risk On or Off speculative assets (stocks or even bonds) if they can't afford food or housing, which is a very real possibility in the coming months.
2: If hyperinflation drives the price of BTC to 100k, then it will also drive the price of everything else we own up. A cheeseburger could end up costing 10k.
Does that mean it's time to go long on burgers?
Adjusted for the rate of hyperinflation, the fact is that a 100 thousand dollar BTC would actually be worth much less than it would be today, but it wouldn't be evident in the charts.
Comment:
The bearish bias is also being validated by the recent break of the long-term Log Growth Chart. This has never occurred before in the history of BTC. And now that it's been significantly broken, this level will act as strong resistance where it once stood as unbreakable support.