Hi guys. after a boring weekend of not moving so much, you guys would have felt numb. however, I do think todays daily, weekly close gave a hint that maybe this bear market is OVER, once and for all, and we will move up in couple of month from now.
you guys should know i short, short, short so many times but, now i feel and see that we NEED TO BE BULLISH at this price action. i am not in any short position for days now.
from now, i do not think price would go to sub 5k. if that happens this market and reversal structure fails. i believe we have chance to drop to 5.5k maybe, if market panics now, with some FUD, it can go to 5k, but, now price is definitely accumulation zone, and long term hold is needed.
lets see the weekly bitfinex chart.
guys you can see that, in 9 month of dropping, today we finally closed OUTSIDE THE descending triangle, at around 6585.price movement is slow, but closing outside this falling wedge/descending triangle is most important. yes, we might fall below the wedge but, i do not think so for now.
from this little fact, that most people do not think important, I DO FEEL important and significant. RSI channel weekly, we have escaped the falling wedge channel.
check bitmex too. we closed outside the triangle now. weekly stoch shows that downwards movement can continue for some more time, but it is almost at the bottom level. MACD is golden crossing now.
BUT, we must understand that when price breaks to the uptrend of the falling wedge, it tends to test the wedge triangle line. also, at current point we must keep an eye on the long term uptrend line from long time ago. long term trend line will support 5k, and the line would come up higher every week when btc price keeps at current 6k level. in above charts, long term uptrend line is the brown line. so you must keep an eye on this long term uptrend line.
normally, start of the new trend touches the long term up trendline. S&P500 and many index in stock market shows the same pattern. so, in this case, i think we can show some upwards movement short term, but maybe in november, price can come down to the long term uptrendline. It can fall to 5.4~5.5k, or 5800ish level.
HOWEVER, i believe after touching the longterm trendline, our new bullrun will start. I believe, Global stock market will start its retracement, but at the same time, BTC and gold(commodity market) will climb up. I have long term target of BTC around 70,000~100,000 dollar in the very long term. next year around 25,000 dollars.
short term, i do think price escaped the falling wedge, now it is testing support, but it will climb up. price may not climb up, but fall down, maybe, around 26~28th. i will notify on this. but, that fall, even if that happens is for the good bull run long term.
From now, i must say, we need different perspective of the market, and different strategy. i believe, now we need to start accumulating. i am accumulating many alt coins, cardano,ETC, BCH, and of course, i hold BTC. you can invest 40~50% at current level, maybe leave rest if, price dips to 5k level.
However, my analysis can only be valid when the long term uptrendline holds. If it does not break down, it is bullish. this means that, investors believe the innovation and development, growth of the market. if price breaks the uptrend line downwards, we must stoploss 100% of our holdings. that would mean the fall of the crypto market, which indicate current price is a bubble still, and months of more bear market should come. if you also believe in the growth and innovation of crupto, you guys can buy alt coins and btc. you can buy btc now, and down to 5.5k with low leverage. i plan to hold for very long term over a year. i will update in my next new idea about my targets and how btc would move next year, how the cycle would reverse.
happy trading!
you guys should know i short, short, short so many times but, now i feel and see that we NEED TO BE BULLISH at this price action. i am not in any short position for days now.
from now, i do not think price would go to sub 5k. if that happens this market and reversal structure fails. i believe we have chance to drop to 5.5k maybe, if market panics now, with some FUD, it can go to 5k, but, now price is definitely accumulation zone, and long term hold is needed.
lets see the weekly bitfinex chart.
guys you can see that, in 9 month of dropping, today we finally closed OUTSIDE THE descending triangle, at around 6585.price movement is slow, but closing outside this falling wedge/descending triangle is most important. yes, we might fall below the wedge but, i do not think so for now.
from this little fact, that most people do not think important, I DO FEEL important and significant. RSI channel weekly, we have escaped the falling wedge channel.
check bitmex too. we closed outside the triangle now. weekly stoch shows that downwards movement can continue for some more time, but it is almost at the bottom level. MACD is golden crossing now.
BUT, we must understand that when price breaks to the uptrend of the falling wedge, it tends to test the wedge triangle line. also, at current point we must keep an eye on the long term uptrend line from long time ago. long term trend line will support 5k, and the line would come up higher every week when btc price keeps at current 6k level. in above charts, long term uptrend line is the brown line. so you must keep an eye on this long term uptrend line.
normally, start of the new trend touches the long term up trendline. S&P500 and many index in stock market shows the same pattern. so, in this case, i think we can show some upwards movement short term, but maybe in november, price can come down to the long term uptrendline. It can fall to 5.4~5.5k, or 5800ish level.
HOWEVER, i believe after touching the longterm trendline, our new bullrun will start. I believe, Global stock market will start its retracement, but at the same time, BTC and gold(commodity market) will climb up. I have long term target of BTC around 70,000~100,000 dollar in the very long term. next year around 25,000 dollars.
short term, i do think price escaped the falling wedge, now it is testing support, but it will climb up. price may not climb up, but fall down, maybe, around 26~28th. i will notify on this. but, that fall, even if that happens is for the good bull run long term.
From now, i must say, we need different perspective of the market, and different strategy. i believe, now we need to start accumulating. i am accumulating many alt coins, cardano,ETC, BCH, and of course, i hold BTC. you can invest 40~50% at current level, maybe leave rest if, price dips to 5k level.
However, my analysis can only be valid when the long term uptrendline holds. If it does not break down, it is bullish. this means that, investors believe the innovation and development, growth of the market. if price breaks the uptrend line downwards, we must stoploss 100% of our holdings. that would mean the fall of the crypto market, which indicate current price is a bubble still, and months of more bear market should come. if you also believe in the growth and innovation of crupto, you guys can buy alt coins and btc. you can buy btc now, and down to 5.5k with low leverage. i plan to hold for very long term over a year. i will update in my next new idea about my targets and how btc would move next year, how the cycle would reverse.
happy trading!
Comment:
ok guys. so btc is retesting the falling wedge support now at 6370(bitmex). it does have risk of falling down here,so stoploss can be set at 6350. but i assume it will pick up and try a rebound. considering bitfinex and bitmex ichimoku cloud resistance, i think we have about 24 hours until a spurt upwards. we first need to go above 6450 and stabilize. if we are still at this price range in next 24hours, we can sell some of our long positions and alt coin positions to secure our seed money, because more drop can come.
Comment:
if we do not go up until 26th(purple line), we can think for scenarios of blue, red, and green. at the moment i think green is more likely, red would not happen unless we see a mega FUD that drags the market down. so be careful this week, bearish setup might happen. even though, mid long term we are going up. just do not buy alt coins at any level that is not the lower support.
Comment:
Buy siacoin.hold until next jan feb.most promising.
Comment:
mercury also good buy now. bottom of the falling wedge.