MarcPMarkets

BTCUSD: Higher Low, But Climbing Back Into Reversal Zone.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: Dramatic run up back to 7600s after making a low of 7372. About 40 points above the support zone I wrote about previously. It does not matter why it happened. What is more important is what is likely to happen next and is there any opportunity here?

In one sentence, the answer is there is nothing here. No level, no trade setup. Just random price action. Price is touching the bearish trend line and appears poised to break, but that is not enough information for us to justify a trade.

At S.C., we are not interested in any new long positions at this level. We will especially be steering clear of any prices near the 7896 reversal zone boundary. Also we are not losing sight of the fact that 8185 is still intact. This is the .382 resistance of the recent bearish structure. As long as this level is not compromised, we will be leaning more to the bear side in the short term.

Keep in mind this does not mean we go short. We are long term bullish and are interested in swing trade long setups, and extreme prices to add to long term inventory.

If you do have the ability to go short, I would keep risk to a minimum by limiting exposure to day trade strategies. And that is beyond the scope of my article.

In summary, yes it's dramatic but there is no reason to react. If this market is going to break out, there will be plenty of new opportunities along the way. Until then, be patient and look ahead to see where the next potential inflection points are. If the market reacts at one of these points, you should at least have a better idea of what to expect. The question you must ask yourself: is it within the range of your trading plan to participate? If you don't know how to answer that, then you probably need to work on developing a well defined plan.

Watch S.C. for more updates.
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Comments

I'll repeat it because I think it's important. You criticize buyers for being greedy to buy slightly higher and take "risk". However, after following you for months, it is pretty clear to me you are also greedy, but in the opposite direction. You want "too good to be true" positions. You say it yourself all the time not to act like the herd, but by waiting retracement at very obvious places everyone else is also expecting, that's exactly what you are, part of the herd.

You always say a reversal followed by a higher low in an area close enough to what you planed is generally a swing long signal. Based on your previous posts, this should have been one, yet you refuse to take it for some reason. You do not clearly explain except it missed your plan by a few dozen dollars.... on an asset moving hundreds in a day.

Again, I'm not saying you are wrong, nor am I saying the price will not drop back down towards 7k, but even if you have a plan, sticking to it 100% is just as bad as not having one. Why? Because this is not precise science, hell, you sometimes list support zones ranging nearly 20% of the asset price (ETH for example), yet you refuse a trade for 40$ on BTC....

I don't know if it's to protect your readers and you actually took a swing yourself, but to me it seems your plan needs some adjusting to what's really happening sometimes. If I remember right, you did not make any money at all from 10k to 20k in December because of this. I understand risk just like you do, but when you always refuse to take a slightly higher amount of risk when the reward can be astronomical is what makes me say you are greedy for "too good to be true" positions.

As a final word, like you I would like a deeper retrace, but after a higher low, it would be really foolish of me not to risk buy the 7.8k breakout or at the very least its retest.
+8 Reply
mightytrader RamzaBehoulve
@RamzaBehoulve, This is his style of trading that fits his lifestyle and limited amount of time he has throughout the day. He is a very cautious swing trader. This is good because it frees up his time.

If you have the time, you can day trade BTC and some of the micro-cap cryptos... But you have to watch the price more to find an opportunity and it can be very exhausting and detrimental to your health.

Currently, BTC price is random and not attractive for a swing trader like Marc.

There are many styles and timeframes of trading. There's even fundamental v.s. technical trading and Marc is mostly technical.

Crypto is also filled with P&D's and as I have disputed with Marc in the past but I realize he does trade PUMP's like I like to.

I personally love illiquid markets that PUMP 20%-200% in a couple hours. Much more fun than BTC and using leverage.. I don't like leveraged trading very much.
Reply
mightytrader mightytrader
* he does NOT trade pumps and illiquid markets like I enjoy doing
Reply
mightytrader RamzaBehoulve
@RamzaBehoulve, Some typos... see above.
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Thanks @MarcPMarkets your inputs on the levels to watch for.
Frankly i like it when crypto market is slow as it gives lot of time for planning and execution.
@goldbug1 When is your article coming?
+1 Reply
I think we are going to 8100 zone before continuing the correction
+1 Reply
@engmmohie, I have no idea what the hell your chart is communicating, but it's pretty. So I like it. :)
Reply
engmmohie RamMasterFlash
@rbenz, Those are Gann methods
+1 Reply
Larrycrypto engmmohie
@engmmohie, How do you know which points to pick to draw your lines? It looks like an interesting method but you could use several places
to draw your trend lines on that above ? for example you used the 5th as some center point - why there may I ask ?
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engmmohie Larrycrypto
@Larrycrypto, I select the very top or very bottom and apply some equations on it. If you would like to learn more about the method, you could PM me
Reply
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