Bitcoin is showing us that the entire rally since December has been nothing more than a bear market rally. Make no mistake people, this is NOT what you see in a bull market. Bitcoin failed to surpass the all time high. It failed to hold the 21 week moving average. It fell below the 50 day moving average, and defined it as resistance. Then, it dropped below the 200 day moving average (in purple) defined THAT as resistance, and is now heading lower. Additionally, we have a death cross that is going to happen in the next few days. Never in the history of BTC, has a bull market acted this way. This is extreme weakness that is 100% atypical of historical BTC bull market characteristics. Furthermore, this is atypical for what is normally seen in ANY bull market. So, this is very unhealthy, and it just goes to show that we were in a bear market rally.
I actually posted an analysis telling everyone that this would happen, on May 27th. Admittedly, the correction is taking longer than I had originally anticipated, but BTC is heading there nonetheless.
So, in terms of immediate downside targets for BTC, I'm looking at the top of the blue downtrend channel. That is my major target. If BTC falls below that, the ultimate target is my regression arc which I have shown on my weekly chart analyses. That currently sits in the 3500 range. So, yes, if BTC falls inside of the blue downtrend channel, it is extremely likely that we will trade below 4000.
I think the most likely scenario, could possibly be a hold on the downtrend channel, and then a rally from there. Potentially back up to the 50 MA. That's just speculation though. We will have to see if BTC can hold the top of the channel, which should be close to converging with the major support level in red by the time BTC gets down there.
Remember how earlier this summer, everyone and their dog thought that BTC was going to the moon? Remember how I was constantly posting on twitter about the danger of that overly bullish sentiment? I was showing people the greed index. I was posting analyses about the NVT sell signal, and how it was indicating that BTC was setting up for a major fall. I showed this time and time again, but amateur investors usually chose to ignore reality, especially in the crypto space.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
I actually posted an analysis telling everyone that this would happen, on May 27th. Admittedly, the correction is taking longer than I had originally anticipated, but BTC is heading there nonetheless.
So, in terms of immediate downside targets for BTC, I'm looking at the top of the blue downtrend channel. That is my major target. If BTC falls below that, the ultimate target is my regression arc which I have shown on my weekly chart analyses. That currently sits in the 3500 range. So, yes, if BTC falls inside of the blue downtrend channel, it is extremely likely that we will trade below 4000.
I think the most likely scenario, could possibly be a hold on the downtrend channel, and then a rally from there. Potentially back up to the 50 MA. That's just speculation though. We will have to see if BTC can hold the top of the channel, which should be close to converging with the major support level in red by the time BTC gets down there.
Remember how earlier this summer, everyone and their dog thought that BTC was going to the moon? Remember how I was constantly posting on twitter about the danger of that overly bullish sentiment? I was showing people the greed index. I was posting analyses about the NVT sell signal, and how it was indicating that BTC was setting up for a major fall. I showed this time and time again, but amateur investors usually chose to ignore reality, especially in the crypto space.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
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