Bitcoin summer fundamental and technical analysis
Hello everyone!
On the fundamentals side :
I believe the altcoin/token bubble is over. Most of the altcoin charts I see point down and the same goes for Bitcoin. I am of the opinion that this bubble popping will bring Bitcoin down with it (but to a much lesser extend).
Also, as you might have heard, Bitcoin has had a problem upgrading due to some miners blocking the upgrade. However, this will probably come to an end in August either in a 'peaceful' or a 'violent' way. The situation will be getting clearer and clearer by late July and early August, but for me the outcome is pretty much very certain : Segwit (the so much anticipated upgrade), will kick in smoothly in August. That alone could pump the price by 2k in less than a week. The issue is when will we know for sure? Unfortunately only a few players will know precisely when, so the only thing we can do is trade based on price behaviour or buy and hold below 2000$ (or if you have the stomach, buy now.)
On the techical side :
I think the bear trend has started for good. My momentum indicators are pointing down. Price failed to make new highs and fell after hitting hard resistance. If the 2200-2300 levels don't hold, we are in serious trouble. These are good short term levels to go long, but not ideal for longer timeframes.
Below I created some tradingview images using various charts and exchanges, as I think that people shouldn't trade based only on one exchanges. My original chart is an average of the top 6 Bitcoin USD exchanges : Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Gemini, BTC-e, Kraken (LOL), Coinbase (LOL x2)
BTCChina - This one shows that the support has broken and if the red line is broken, we are going down...
Bitstamp 4H - Momentum + Oscillators - All bearish
Bitstamp 1D - Momentum + Oscillators - All bearish
Bitfinex log chart
BTC-e log chart
And finally this is a kinda complex chart I created, based on various non USD exchanges. You can see the pairs and the ratios I've used for each pair. The ratios are kinda arbitrary, but I've considered various factors before choosing them - i.e volumes, fees, withdrawal issues and geolocation. Somehow it seems to be working very very well, and by this I mean that former resistance becomes support and former support becomes resistance.
On the fundamentals side :
I believe the altcoin/token bubble is over. Most of the altcoin charts I see point down and the same goes for Bitcoin. I am of the opinion that this bubble popping will bring Bitcoin down with it (but to a much lesser extend).
Also, as you might have heard, Bitcoin has had a problem upgrading due to some miners blocking the upgrade. However, this will probably come to an end in August either in a 'peaceful' or a 'violent' way. The situation will be getting clearer and clearer by late July and early August, but for me the outcome is pretty much very certain : Segwit (the so much anticipated upgrade), will kick in smoothly in August. That alone could pump the price by 2k in less than a week. The issue is when will we know for sure? Unfortunately only a few players will know precisely when, so the only thing we can do is trade based on price behaviour or buy and hold below 2000$ (or if you have the stomach, buy now.)
On the techical side :
I think the bear trend has started for good. My momentum indicators are pointing down. Price failed to make new highs and fell after hitting hard resistance. If the 2200-2300 levels don't hold, we are in serious trouble. These are good short term levels to go long, but not ideal for longer timeframes.
Below I created some tradingview images using various charts and exchanges, as I think that people shouldn't trade based only on one exchanges. My original chart is an average of the top 6 Bitcoin USD exchanges : Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Gemini, BTC-e, Kraken (LOL), Coinbase (LOL x2)
BTCChina - This one shows that the support has broken and if the red line is broken, we are going down...
And finally this is a kinda complex chart I created, based on various non USD exchanges. You can see the pairs and the ratios I've used for each pair. The ratios are kinda arbitrary, but I've considered various factors before choosing them - i.e volumes, fees, withdrawal issues and geolocation. Somehow it seems to be working very very well, and by this I mean that former resistance becomes support and former support becomes resistance.