Important Levels To Watch in Bitcoin! (BTC)

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC is currently not making much progress, in terms of heading higher to complete this potential right shoulder. The lack of upside momentum here is not very convincing at the moment, but technically, this pattern could still complete an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Since the market is just chopping sideways, it's impossible for any of us to know exactly which direction the market will break to. However, we can discuss the most important levels to monitor, and why we should be paying attention to them.

On the chart, you can see that BTC was in a big bull flag (in black,) and it actually had a weak breakout to the upside. We can see that price has since rolled over, and now it looks like it could fall to the top of the flag to test it for support. Now, if we see a test of the top of the bear flag , which holds as support, that would actually be a bullish sign — one that could lead to a completion of the right shoulder.

However if the top of the bull flag is lost, we would then be looking at a failed bull flag breakout, which is not the kind of follow-through strength you want to see in the right shoulder of a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. Furthermore, if we start to break down below the December 27th low of 3567, that would dramatically reduce the likelihood of this being an inverted head and shoulders pattern, and it would increase the likelihood that we have actually just printed a lower high in the downtrend. Technically, the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern could go as low as the head, but it's best to be defensive, since we are still in a bear market downtrend. If you look at the chart, it is nothing but lower highs and lower lows. So, there is no doubt that the bear market downtrend persists.

Just to clear up any questions, I am definitely still long term bullish on the crypto space, even if we do see a failure of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. As I've said on numerous occasions, I do not believe that the bear market is over. What does that mean? Well, to me it means that even if we rally substantially off of these levels (say up to the low 5000s) I still believe that price is likely to then head back to the downside, as we enter a long sideways consolidation period in the market. At some point we are likely to start grinding mostly sideways, and that could persist for a couple of years. That's the most likely way that we will see the final stages of this bear market. With that said, I also believe that crypto will have another powerful bull market after that consolidation period. For now, we have to continue to monitor this whipsaw action in Bitcoin , to see what direction it will finally break to. So, keep an eye on the top of the bull flag , the neckline (in blue,) the 50 EMA (in orange,) and the December 27th low of 3567 on the downside.

I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.

***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***

Comment: I meant to say a test of the top of the bull*** flag.
Nice TA, That BTC is definitely reactive at each point of support and resistance you define. Well done.
This needs more time. Funny how everyone automatically assumes that is must instantly go...UP. This is sideways consolidation. They should be thankful it didn't totally collapse. 1300-1900 is still possible. I like Your blue line @ approx 4100. Weekly Res is approx 4100. And longer term we only made the left shoulder. The head would be coming yet. btw- Gld, slv & uso went sideways for years.
tnewdigate jmusbach
@jmusbach, I still think we haven’t hit the bottom yet. Where we are at now proves that we hit a new low, interest goes up a little and so does price and then volume falls. Rinse and repeat to new lows. We don’t have enough people interested in buying and the highs keep getting lower and lower. I’m calling $1k-1500 by mid summer. Not saying that it’s impossible to see a surge to the 4200-4800 level, I just don’t think we’ll maintain it for very long at all.

I’m personally done chasing highs. I’ve moved my position back to fiat (fortunately at a profit) and I’m setting buys at $1500 and below. In my opinion, those will be my all in levels.
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boomshakalaka. btc building bullish symmetrical pattern with target at 4.5k. review/like and follow!

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These are my thoughts on bitcoin let me know what you guys think
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Awesome analysis. I agree with everything except the bull flag formation, I think Bitcoin is forming an ascending triangle formation instead, which usually has contracting volume until a breakout.
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@BradMetz, what was a bull flag has now morphed into an ascending triangle. Typically, volume declines in the progression of inverse head and shoulders patterns as well, until there is a breakout. The volume decline reflects the increasing uncertainty of traders, as they are increasingly less willing to trade, until a breakout is produced in one direction or the other. Thanks for sharing.
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