Now i welcome input and constructive criticism. I am a very noob trader and i learned everything off the internet. That said, this is what i think is happening in BTC right now. Obviously not financial advice, if you take financial advice from a self-professed noob you need to get your brain checked.
The trendlines indicate that the bear market is no longer on a steep descend and the bearish descend is losing power and the market is in fact moving sideways.
But volume indicates that we are not officially on a bull-run yet.
Notice the similar 3 desending peaks repeating themselves since Dec 2017. thepatternsite.com/3fp.html
I think this is the third, albiet slightly deformed fractal indicating the end of the bear market. However i think without volume it is more likely that we will move sideways from here on.
Notice that if we draw a trendline (or curve) from end 2016, we see that Dec 2017 has been an overly parabolic bullish jump. Yet the dip is not typical of what we see in normal markets (we hardly fell below the trendline formed since July 2017). Usually a parabolic price peak from hype and emotions are followed by a greater dip from panic selling and fear. This might be partly due to HODLers who will not panic sell. But i will not be surprised if the market moved sideways below the bullish trend for a couple of months before the real bull-run starts. If you look at the 1D charts and zoom out, it looks like half a cup forming. Which will make a lot of sense because the cup and handle is usually what happens to a market. A parabolic move up driven by emotions followed by an over-correction due to fear, and it then begins to move up again driven by confidence from the underlying asset's stability and future potential.
We also need to consider the fact that Big Money has been buying humongous bulk of Bitcoin OTC. These are people used to trading in traditional markets where 2% is a GREAT profit and 10% is like an enormous win fall. And these buyers often ask for like, 4-5% discounts from sellers when buying OTC. It won't be surprising if these institutional noobs (yes i call them noobs) who are not used to Crypto's massive 100X explosion will be just quickly buying OTC and selling off exchanges at 2% discounts to quickly get their 2% profits. We need to remember these are people who will spend hundred of millions buying over buildings just to get a 6% anuual yield.
Crypto influencers might need to spend some time educating these new joiners to be patient for 10X-100X profits.
I'm not bearish mid to long term, but short term, even with a bear that is running out of steam, i do not see any reason for being bullish on Bitcoin... yet. All in all, no reason to worry yet.
The trendlines indicate that the bear market is no longer on a steep descend and the bearish descend is losing power and the market is in fact moving sideways.
But volume indicates that we are not officially on a bull-run yet.
Notice the similar 3 desending peaks repeating themselves since Dec 2017. thepatternsite.com/3fp.html
I think this is the third, albiet slightly deformed fractal indicating the end of the bear market. However i think without volume it is more likely that we will move sideways from here on.
Notice that if we draw a trendline (or curve) from end 2016, we see that Dec 2017 has been an overly parabolic bullish jump. Yet the dip is not typical of what we see in normal markets (we hardly fell below the trendline formed since July 2017). Usually a parabolic price peak from hype and emotions are followed by a greater dip from panic selling and fear. This might be partly due to HODLers who will not panic sell. But i will not be surprised if the market moved sideways below the bullish trend for a couple of months before the real bull-run starts. If you look at the 1D charts and zoom out, it looks like half a cup forming. Which will make a lot of sense because the cup and handle is usually what happens to a market. A parabolic move up driven by emotions followed by an over-correction due to fear, and it then begins to move up again driven by confidence from the underlying asset's stability and future potential.
We also need to consider the fact that Big Money has been buying humongous bulk of Bitcoin OTC. These are people used to trading in traditional markets where 2% is a GREAT profit and 10% is like an enormous win fall. And these buyers often ask for like, 4-5% discounts from sellers when buying OTC. It won't be surprising if these institutional noobs (yes i call them noobs) who are not used to Crypto's massive 100X explosion will be just quickly buying OTC and selling off exchanges at 2% discounts to quickly get their 2% profits. We need to remember these are people who will spend hundred of millions buying over buildings just to get a 6% anuual yield.
Crypto influencers might need to spend some time educating these new joiners to be patient for 10X-100X profits.
I'm not bearish mid to long term, but short term, even with a bear that is running out of steam, i do not see any reason for being bullish on Bitcoin... yet. All in all, no reason to worry yet.
Comment:
Consensus have driven it up a notch, but no visible increase in volume yet. I'm happy to be wrong because i'm bullish on BTC but volume just isn't in yet.
Comment:
Everything so far is very expected.
On a side note:
Institutional money definitely is not going to reflect on exchange pricings. They are buying OTC. Hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of Bitcoins bought up without prices rising, just waiting to dump on us in exchanges. So take note:
Prices NEVER increase when they bought up millions of Bitcoins.
Prices drop when they sell.
OTCs are a way for institutional money to devalue Bitcoin.
If the sell-out fools are not stopping their OTC sales, then Bitcoin will be absolute $0. If they manipulate prices down to accumulate more, we should see prices go down to $3000 for another year or so before it comes up again. And then they will dump on us and Bitcoin will be worth less than $0.
On a side note:
Institutional money definitely is not going to reflect on exchange pricings. They are buying OTC. Hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of Bitcoins bought up without prices rising, just waiting to dump on us in exchanges. So take note:
Prices NEVER increase when they bought up millions of Bitcoins.
Prices drop when they sell.
OTCs are a way for institutional money to devalue Bitcoin.
If the sell-out fools are not stopping their OTC sales, then Bitcoin will be absolute $0. If they manipulate prices down to accumulate more, we should see prices go down to $3000 for another year or so before it comes up again. And then they will dump on us and Bitcoin will be worth less than $0.