Bitcoin Daily Update (day 253)

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.

Previous analysis / position: “Isn’t much room left for continued sideways action. Consolidation starts with a wide range and a lot of volatility . Big trends tend to start following a very tight range and lowvolume / volatility / Bollinger Band super squeeze.” / Short BTC from $6,354 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order set at 0.97 to cover.
Patterns: Symmetrical Triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,360 | R: $6,376 - $6,383
BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily dragonfly tells me that shorts should start increasing within the next 24 - 48 hours
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (3 day MA): Price closed > 3 MA | Watching for resistance from 9 MA and 34 MA
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Angling up at $6,400
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Angling down with price currently testing it
Overall trend: Long term trend is firmly bearish . Weekly candle closed below 3 MA which is below 9 MA which is below 34 MA. That is a fully bearish setup.
Volume: Pitiful
FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 | 0.786 = $6,280
Candlestick analysis: Rally at the end of the day closed a bullish wick / dragonfly doji
Ichimoku Cloud: Price fell out of 4h cloud yesterday. Now it is right back inside of it.
TD’ Sequential: Daily r5 | W r1
Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789.
Price action: 24h: +0.34% | 2w: +1.73% | 1m: +3.6%
Bollinger Bands: Currently finding resistance from daily MA
Trendline: Phase 2 of hyperwave at $6,360
Daily Trend: chop
Fractals: Up: $6,564 | Down: $6,207
RSI: Overbought on 30 minute. Watching for bear div
Stochastic: Daily attempting to cross bullish . Weekly buy.

Summary: The weekly candle closing below the 3 MA is very important to me. That puts the weekly chart back into a fully bearish posture. It is strongly preferable to start your analysis with higher TF’s. I start with the weekly and zoom in from there.

The daily turned fully bearish a couple days ago triggering a full entry. Now that the higher TF is in agreeance I feel much more confident in my position.

I have been paying close attention to the 30 minute chart for intraday price movements. The price briefly broke out of the down trend that I drew in yesterday’s post. Then it found resistance from horizontals. The we sold off to $6,270 before creating a double bottom .

Now it is trying to from a bull flag and / or a Bulkowski Big W. However I am not falling for that myself. Instead I am paying close attention to the overbought RSI to see if we will get a divergence.

By this time tomorrow I expect to create a new low below the $6,270 low from today. The weekly buy signal is a bit concerning and is the strongest indication that I see showing a bullish continuation over the next week.
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