BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis / position: “Bitcoin is back below the bear trend line after breaking out on low volume and selling off on higher volume . I have scaled into large short positions on BTC” / Short BTC from $6,354 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order set at 0.97 to cover.
Patterns: Retesting trendline
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,380 | S: $6,335 - $6,350 (running out of room to consolidate)
BTCUSDSHORTS: Look ready to bounce following reversal candles at support plus TD’ 9
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (3 day MA): Today's candle closed below and saw bearish crossovers
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Still above 34 MA and hasn’t started to angle down yet.
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Starting to turn over sharply and act as resistance
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: Tiny volume today makes me think of the calm before the storm. Volume picking up on Monday is something to watch for.
FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 | 0.786 = $6,280
Candlestick analysis: Bearish wick on top of today's candle. Some may consider that an inverted hammer however I would disagree. Wicking off of the 34 MA is exactly what I want to see while in a short position.
Ichimoku Cloud: If not in a position then watch for price to close 4h cloud to signal entry. Could set stop order at ~$6,348 however it is preferable to make sure the candle closes before entering.
TD’ Sequential: Daily r4 | 3d g2 < g1 | W g1 (watch for close below $6,184 tomorrow. That would turn it into a r5)
Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789.
Price action: 24h: +0.31% | 2w: -0.7% | 1m: -2.63%
Bollinger Bands: Daily BB is now trending bearish and the bottom band has fallen below the Phase 2 trendline
Trendline: Bull: $6,309 | Bear: $6,353 (still being tested for resistance)
Daily Trend: Chop
Up: $6,564 | Down: $6,207
RSI: Back in bearish territory below 50
Stochastic: 12h buy signal. Daily still pulling back

Summary: Isn’t much room left for continued sideways action. Consolidation starts with a wide range and a lot of volatility . Big trends tend to start following a very tight range and low volume / volatility / Bollinger Band super squeeze.

Think of a ball bouncing on a table. It will start with one big bounce, then a small bounce, so on and so forth. Eventually it just starts rolling towards the edge of the table. Waiting for it to fall over the edge, or somehow get another bounce, can be very stressful and anxiety inducing. It also has the effect of lulling one to sleep when they should be on alert.

The current horizontal support / resistance lines have compressed to a ~$30 range. The bull / bear trendlines come to an apex on November 13th based on how I have them drawn. The volume on October’s candle was the smallest it has been in 2018. The daily Bollinger Band Width is at record lows.

The Network Transaction Value ( NVT ) created by Willy Woo is showing that the network is more overvalued now than ever before. This is based on how many people are using the blockchain and has been a very valuable FA tool in the past.

Consolidation cannot last forever. A trend will start eventually. As far as I am concerned you have three options: enter a position now in order to speculate where you think the price is going next. Wait until the trend actually starts (ADX' > 25 is a good indication) and then enter a position. Otherwise it is never a mistake to stay on the sidelines and wait for the next opportunity. Never chase an entry signal. there will always be another move and another opportunity.

Personally I am viewing the current price as a low risk short entry. The prior couple daily candles have provided well defined horizontal support / resistance levels and the trendline appears to be holding up as resistance. If you are not in a position and wanting to enter a short then waiting for a breakdown of the 4 hour Ichimoku Cloud is the best entry I see in the next 24 hours.
Comment: 30 minute chart

Comment: Changed my mind. Wasn't accounting for horizontals. Horizontals > > trend lines, always

Comment: Good example of horizontals being > trend line

EMASAR Indicator is available for purchase at http://www.sawcruhteez.com

Comments

Thanks so much for your consistent analysis. I've learned so much from the way you analyze the charts. I always look forward to your daily update. I guess it's time to chill out till the trend shows us the way.
+1 Reply
Sawcruhteez Zero-Tokyo
@Zero-Tokyo, My pleasure, thanks for the kind words!
Reply
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