Hello Traders,
I have made many charts before in regards to the current cycle. I have always tried to look at the perspective of the market away from bias opinion. I have explored many different data points and perspective from technical and a fundamental level. But most importantly, I am of the opinion of lengthening cycles and diminishing returns. Here are some of my previous charts and description that can add context and depth to this analysis.
This model was constructed from a fractal in the 2017 cycle. So far it has been very accurate in reclaiming all time high's (ATH) then the current pullback towards the mid 50k region.
This was an idea from a fundamental perspective as I explored the correlation of media attention and affect on market cycles. I concluded at a time when people were calling the bounce from 30k to 40 was dead cat bounce, was actually not.
The more I look at the data and this cycle matures, I realise that the cycle has it similarities but has its unique characteristics. Perhaps I'll be wrong and Bitcoin will fail to put in another ATH and the bears will win this point. However, I would like to put my theory forward.
I think that Bitcoin will fail to breakout past 100k upon reaching it. I also expect the RSI values to be higher then 90 on the weekly suggesting the commodity is over brought and will lead to another pullback like scenario we saw in April.
2013 first peak 101
2013 second peak 96
2018 peak 90
2021 first peak 96
2021 current level 54.74
This will leave the market to bleed for some months but I think it will find support on the middle of the logarithmic growth band. Thereafter, there will be another rally that will be parabolic and conclude the third leg of this cycle. I'm expecting to come close to valuations at the top of the logarithmic growth band as we have seen with all previous market tops, I don't think this cycle will be different. A summer top would give us a market top around 180k. Also expecting very high RSI levels and on the BTC risk metric.
Finally, the bear market. Massive pullback, dead cat bounce and failure to hold any of the significant moving averages, bull market support band etc. I think dipping below the middle of the logarithmic band and failure to break past it is also confirmation that the price will be headed towards the bottom band. I also think that with each cycle the volatility will decrease and therefore bitcoin will never see another 85% pullback like we have seen with previous cycles.
Bear market period 2014 (420d) 87.11%
Bear market period 2018 (350d) 84.10%
Bear market period 2022 (420d) 57.5%
I think this cycle is more similar to 2013 as we have multiple peaks and therefore expect a bear market period to recover similar too. Of course this is much speculation never be too deterministic, always do your own research and be prepared for any scenario in the crypto markets.
I have made many charts before in regards to the current cycle. I have always tried to look at the perspective of the market away from bias opinion. I have explored many different data points and perspective from technical and a fundamental level. But most importantly, I am of the opinion of lengthening cycles and diminishing returns. Here are some of my previous charts and description that can add context and depth to this analysis.
This model was constructed from a fractal in the 2017 cycle. So far it has been very accurate in reclaiming all time high's (ATH) then the current pullback towards the mid 50k region.
This was an idea from a fundamental perspective as I explored the correlation of media attention and affect on market cycles. I concluded at a time when people were calling the bounce from 30k to 40 was dead cat bounce, was actually not.
The more I look at the data and this cycle matures, I realise that the cycle has it similarities but has its unique characteristics. Perhaps I'll be wrong and Bitcoin will fail to put in another ATH and the bears will win this point. However, I would like to put my theory forward.
I think that Bitcoin will fail to breakout past 100k upon reaching it. I also expect the RSI values to be higher then 90 on the weekly suggesting the commodity is over brought and will lead to another pullback like scenario we saw in April.
2013 first peak 101
2013 second peak 96
2018 peak 90
2021 first peak 96
2021 current level 54.74
This will leave the market to bleed for some months but I think it will find support on the middle of the logarithmic growth band. Thereafter, there will be another rally that will be parabolic and conclude the third leg of this cycle. I'm expecting to come close to valuations at the top of the logarithmic growth band as we have seen with all previous market tops, I don't think this cycle will be different. A summer top would give us a market top around 180k. Also expecting very high RSI levels and on the BTC risk metric.
Finally, the bear market. Massive pullback, dead cat bounce and failure to hold any of the significant moving averages, bull market support band etc. I think dipping below the middle of the logarithmic band and failure to break past it is also confirmation that the price will be headed towards the bottom band. I also think that with each cycle the volatility will decrease and therefore bitcoin will never see another 85% pullback like we have seen with previous cycles.
Bear market period 2014 (420d) 87.11%
Bear market period 2018 (350d) 84.10%
Bear market period 2022 (420d) 57.5%
I think this cycle is more similar to 2013 as we have multiple peaks and therefore expect a bear market period to recover similar too. Of course this is much speculation never be too deterministic, always do your own research and be prepared for any scenario in the crypto markets.