The Last Dead End

We are now in wave 5 of an up trend and we have 3 scenarios:

1) Bullish Blue count
We will have the EMA golden cross on D1 tomorrow and will smash 10000 and MA 200 resistance with a huge pump and parabolic volume on a strong candle.
The target for massive wave 5 must be at least 10560 (1.618 of wave 1), ideally 11640 (2.618 of wave 1) for the 23.6-38.2% correction to end above 10000 and above MA 200.
Will they do it? We don't know.

2) Bullish Green count
We can pullback in subwave ii (circle) of wave 5, find support on EMAs 50-200 or the rising green trend line, move up to break 10000 and the purple trend line in wave 3 (circle) in a few days with targets 10900 and 11640.

3) Bearish Red count
We will test/break 10000, but will be rejected by MA 200 (currently 10050) and go down to 7750. We might have a weak golden cross (will cross back down immediately) or a near miss of EMAs on D1.
We can also start correcting any time now since 9900 is 100% of wave 1 and we have hit the purple trend line.
Breaking the rising green trend line and 8800 will invalidate bullish scenario and confirm the ABC correction.


Resistance levels on the way up that can bounce:
10000
10050 MA 200
10850 resistance level
11180 or 11500 38.2% retracement depending from which wick you draw the fibs.

In favor of the up trend:
- we started making a golden cross on D1
- $10 bln daily volume
- we also have breakouts from the down channel/golden cross on D1 in all cryptos (see Litecoin, Ethereum):
BTC - breakout, below MA 200, golden cross
ZEC - breakout, below EMA 200, no golden cross, but possible soon
DSH - breakout, below EMA 200, no golden cross, but possible soon
BCH - breakout, recent golden cross
ETH - breakout, recent golden cross
XRP - breakout, recent golden cross
IOTA -breakout, no golden cross, but possible soon
EOS - breakout, no cross, EMAs fanning up
LTC - breakout, no cross, EMAs nearly missed, goes up
OMG - breakout, no cross, EMAs nearly missed, goes up
TRX - breakout, no EMA 200, EMAs fanning, goes up

NEO - no breakout, no cross, but possible soon
XMR - no breakout, recent golden cross

These prior moves/pumps on alts are inexpensive compared to Bitcoin. The market makers use them to shift the market bias to the bullish side and instill confidence in traders in the up trend of Bitcoin.
Also watch volume on ETHBTC and LTCBTC. They may be trading BTC for alts to dump them and get more USD to pump Bitcoin.


Good Luck!

This is just an idea of things to come, not a financial advice. Please do your own research, I'm not responsible for possible losses.

Comment:

This does not look like a start of a wave 3 to me. We seem to have a sharp upwards correction to 38.2% of the prev swing confirming further decline. As result, we will likely have another leg of correction to 9450 (H1 EMA 200), 9400 (50% retracement), 9250 (61.8% retracement) or find support even further down at the rising green trend line at around 9000.

If we stop at around 9400 wave 5 may still transform into a rising ending abcde wedge 3-3-3-3-3 which may retest 10000 and break down. It does not need to touch or break 10000. We have already broken 9500 on smaller timeframes (wave d goes beyond the end of wave a confirming a possible ending wedge).
wave 4 => wave a, bc => ab, c = 10000 and we are in wave d.

There are other bearish signs:
- RSI divergence on H1, H4, D1
- bearish engulfment on D1
- we are losing up trend momentum
- flattening or curving down EMAs on M15, H1
- weak/no golden cross on D1 (EMAs are just touching)
- decreasing daily volume

Right now the bias is bearish and we have no valid reason to go back to 10000. We are busy looking for a new support. But things can change, of course.

Comment:

Bearish arguments:
- You can count 5 waves of a down trend. We have just completed either a wave 5 (waves 3 and 5 = 1.618+ of wave 1) or an extended wave 3 (2.61 of wave 1). In both cases we have C > 1.618 of A, so this is not just a correction and I expect a further move down.

- So far we were rejected by EMAs 200 and 50 on M15 and EMA 50 on H1. If we move up now, we are likely to get rejected also by EMA 200 at 9450 on H1 or by EMA 50 at around 9500 again.

- On H4 we have 2 indecision candles

- On H4 we have a rejection by the mean line of Bollinger, on H1 the price is also consolidated below Bollinger mean, we don't have a bulge yet - the move is not over.

- RSI divergence on H4, D1

- Bearish Ichimoku H1, weak death cross on H4 (we can still find support on a cloud), and we're fine on D1

There are some bullish arguments:
- 9250 support is 61.8% retracement of a move up from 8800
- 9290 support is a historic Double Top Neck
- we've formed a double bottom
This is our last chance to revive the wave 3 of an up trend

But I don't expect this level to hold, we are likely to drop a bit more to 9000:
- 9050 is 50% retracement of 11650 to 6400
- 9050 is 78.6% retracement of a move up from 8800
- 9000 is support of a rising green trend line (3rd point)
- 9000 is a psychological level