COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
look for this wave 1 to top out at 45.5k
that's also where the 200 daily simple moving average is, perfectly in confluence with our sub wave 5 target to put in wave (1) on a higher degree.

from there we should in theory see a mean reversion for wave (2) to about 34.7k
the alternative is btc will have a flat correction , similar to last year, where it will move sideways for a month or two, rather than down.

if we do see the mean reversion for wave 2, that is the key entry for long positions on any alts, as well as leveraged longs on btc .

since btc wants to move up, we have to adapt to what the new data is showing us, and as of this moment that data points straight up.

wave 5 could see an extension to 100k+, but i'm being conservative with my analysis here, and giving it a 84k upside target.

better to aim lower, than higher.

best of luck to everyone, let's get it.
Comment: you can see historically what the 200SMA on the daily has done to btc,

circled in red every time it acted as a resistance \ btc saw a very strong rejection upon touching it

Comment: few more points of confluence just recently


as we approach this level, i do think we are going to see a very strong rejection, which will tell us more about where btc will be headed next.

if btc lands into the local golden zone (around 34k), we can confirm our bullish bias, and become moon boys all the way to 80~100k

but if btc falls through our local golden zone, then there is a really high probability it will drop to the mid\low 20k's.

if you're long up here, be super careful
Comment: our local golden zone is the key.

I'm always happy to be bullish if the charts permit me to; I trade in both directions regardless of what's going on in the markets - so to me it really doesn't matter in which direction crypto will go; but, for the sake of all my friends who are long, i really do hope we see a strong follow through in this local golden zone to see some some fresh new highs by Christmas Eve 🎄

Have a blessed weekend everyone, trade safe, and always expect the unexpected💸

Comment: textbook ending diagonal here to get us perfectly to the provided upside target.

also note the short interest starting to rise as we grind higher up here

Comment: there's a chance btc pushes to 47k on this move; this wouldn't change much in the bigger picture, but thought i'd share this just in case

talked about it a week ago via:

Trade active: we got some 1\3\6\8\12\24\3d algorithmic sell signals starting to pop off up here

manage your capital
Comment: i bet this dip is a fake out, expecting another push to 45.5~46.5 before the real dip
Comment: this slow grind down is not convincing for the kind of dip i was projecting

chances are something else might be going on

entertaining this idea right now, if the bull case stands true:


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