In the last few days I sometimes have thought BTC would turn - but it continued its way up.
First time it´s been the 7.000$ - line where I expected it to turn.
Second time it´s been the swing trend line at ~7290$ where I expected it to turn
And now it seems that BTC will even touch the upper limit of the descending parallel channel - perhaps it´ll cross it before turning; just as it had done in july.
But yes, I still think it´ll turn and it´ll test the lower limit of the trend channel.
Why?
A) This is the structure of the last weeks and months. Why should it be different this time?
B) Watching the Altcoins we see, that only BTC made the move up (ok there are some other alts as well going up). But the majority of the altcoin-market is still low. So this underlines, that the sentiment hasn´t turned yet.
C) RSI has reached the bullish zone (dayly) and in 4h-candles it has already turned. There we see a little negative difference - not much but perhaps a first warning sign.
D) BTC has surpassed EMA 50 - a correction wouldn´t be surprising.
E) EW - analysis fits very good - and it did in the last weeks as well.
This is no trading advice.
First time it´s been the 7.000$ - line where I expected it to turn.
Second time it´s been the swing trend line at ~7290$ where I expected it to turn
And now it seems that BTC will even touch the upper limit of the descending parallel channel - perhaps it´ll cross it before turning; just as it had done in july.
But yes, I still think it´ll turn and it´ll test the lower limit of the trend channel.
Why?
A) This is the structure of the last weeks and months. Why should it be different this time?
B) Watching the Altcoins we see, that only BTC made the move up (ok there are some other alts as well going up). But the majority of the altcoin-market is still low. So this underlines, that the sentiment hasn´t turned yet.
C) RSI has reached the bullish zone (dayly) and in 4h-candles it has already turned. There we see a little negative difference - not much but perhaps a first warning sign.
D) BTC has surpassed EMA 50 - a correction wouldn´t be surprising.
E) EW - analysis fits very good - and it did in the last weeks as well.
This is no trading advice.
Trade active:
Comment:
Comment:
We´re within a resistance / support zone - on the lower limit of it. In my analysis (see above) I expect it to be broken to the bottom and to build a new low (C). But if we continue within the mentioned zone the probability that BTC can rise from this level rises also. Actually all is possible and I wouldn´t take an investment right now.
Comment:
Comment:
BTC still captured in the neutral rectangle. Some movements up and down, but no new trend. Volume still relatively low. Also the indicators signalling more or less anaemic live.
So we have to wait unless BTC breaks out of the trend channel to the top (above 6.950$) or to the bottom (lower than 5.700$). Both moves will end this sideways trend.
So we have to wait unless BTC breaks out of the trend channel to the top (above 6.950$) or to the bottom (lower than 5.700$). Both moves will end this sideways trend.
BTC could continue to fall - but not crossing the support at ~ 5.800$. Instead it could rebounce on this level and rising again. So it could be reasonable to invest one part of the free money at this level and leaving another part as reserve for deeper prices.
This is no trading advice - we never know the future.